Asia Market Quick Take – September 29, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: US personal spending rose for a third straight month in August
• Equities: The S&P 500 ended a three-day losing streak
• FX: USDJPY reverses off 150, but hedge funds extended bearish yen bets
• Commodities: Gold rose trading within $10 of last week’s record, after a sixth weekly gain
• Fixed income: Treasury yields near one-month highs (10Y 4.19%, 2Y 3.64%)

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in August 2025, meeting expectations. Goods prices increased 0.1%, and services costs grew 0.3%. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2%. Food prices increased 0.5%, while energy costs rebounded by 0.8%. Annual headline PCE inflation reached 2.7%, the highest in six months, and core PCE inflation remained at 2.9%, both matching forecasts.
• US personal spending rose 0.6% to $21.112 trillion in August 2025, surpassing expectations of 0.5%. This marked the largest increase in five months. Nondurable goods spending rebounded to 0.8%, services rose steadily at 0.5%, while durable goods spending eased to 0.8%.
• Trump administration is said to be contemplating the imposition of tariffs on imported electronic devices, which would be calculated according to the number of chips contained in each device.
• Eurozone median consumer inflation expectations rose to 2.8% in August 2025, with expectations for five years ahead at 2.2%, the highest since August 2022. Lower-income quintiles continued having higher inflation expectations than higher-income groups. Economic growth expectations stayed at -1.2%, and unemployment expectations rose to 10.7%.
• If a federal shutdown triggers the Department of Labor’s contingency plan, the September jobs report would be delayed, leaving the Fed without key data before its next meeting and potentially compromising future estimates and the September CPI release.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks rose on Friday after an inflation report met expectations, despite new tariffs and weakening consumer sentiment. The S&P 500 gained 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 0.4%, and Dow Jones 300 points, breaking a 3-session losing streak. Core inflation at 2.9% year-over-year suggested two upcoming rate cuts. Boeing (+3.6%) and banks boosted indexes, while GlobalFoundries' 8.4% rise added support. Fresh tariffs and government shutdown concerns added uncertainty. Weekly, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, Nasdaq 0.7%, and Dow Jones was unchanged.
• EU - European stocks rose sharply on Friday, recovering from prior losses as markets reassessed new US tariffs and global rate impacts. The Eurozone's STOXX 50 climbed 0.9% to 5,495, and STOXX 600 increased 0.7% to 554, driven by bank gains amid lower bond yields. ArcelorMittal rose 3% due to planned European tariffs on Chinese steel. Pharmaceuticals fell as Trump announced a 100% tariff on patented products, affecting Novo Nordisk (-3.5%) and Roche (-1%). Daimler dropped 1.9% with new US tariffs on heavy trucks. Weekly performance: STOXX 50 up 0.7%, STOXX 600 flat.
• Hong Kong – HSI fell 356 points (1.4%) to 26,128 on Friday, marking a second session of losses due to proposed steep US tariffs and caution before China’s upcoming holidays. Pharma stocks led declines, with Hong Kong's innovative drug index down 3% and notable losses in tech stocks like Horizon Robotics (-8.7%). The index dropped 1.6% for the week, breaking a three-week gain streak amid fallen Wall Street highs and reduced Fed rate cut expectations.

Earnings this week:

• Monday – Carniva, Progress, Jefferies, Inventiva, Vail Resorts
• Tuesday – LambWeston's, UNFI, Paychex, Nike
• Wednesday – AcuityBrands, Conagra, Rezolve, Novagold, Cal-Maine Foods, RPM
• Thursday – Angiodynamics
• Friday – N/A

FX:

• The loonie reversed earlier losses after a stronger GDP print but still lagged most G10 peers, with USDCAD little changed around 1.3938. Canada appears set to avoid recession this year amid a solid third‑quarter rebound: industry-based GDP rose 0.2% in July, beating consensus, while advance data point to flat output in August.
• The yen steadied, with USDJPY down 0.2% to 149.52; JGB futures are seen slightly firmer as markets await BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi’s speech, and CFTC data to 23 September show hedge funds extended bearish yen bets.
• GBPUSD rose 0.5% to 1.3401 and EURUSD gained 0.3% to 1.1703. German auto-sector strains persist, with Volkswagen trimming production and Robert Bosch cutting 13,000 jobs.
• The Australian dollar and sovereign bonds edged higher ahead of Tuesday’s RBA decision and Friday’s US payrolls; AUDUSD rose 0.1% to 0.6549 after last week’s 0.8% drop, while NZDUSD was little changed at 0.5774 after a 1.5% weekly decline.

Commodities:

• Oil fell at the start of the week as expectations of another OPEC+ output hike in November fuelled oversupply concerns. Brent slipped below $70 a barrel on Monday after a 5.2% gain last week, while WTI hovered around $65. The Saudi-led alliance is considering lifting production by at least the 137,000 barrels a day already scheduled for next month.
• Gold ticked higher near $3,773/oz, less than $20 from last week’s record, after a sixth weekly gain, as US shutdown risks and potential data delays cloud the Fed outlook; prices rose 2% last week on ETF inflows and geopolitical tensions.

Fixed income:

• Treasury yields neared one-month highs as investors positioned for labour data that could steer the Fed, with the 10-year at 4.19% and the two-year down 1bp to 3.64%, both near early-September closes; futures flag JGB gains ahead of BoJ buying and a policymaker speech, while Australian bonds firm before Tuesday’s RBA decision, with OIS pricing just a 4% chance of a 25bp cut.

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