Asia Market Quick Take – September 26, 2025

Asia Market Quick Take – September 26, 2025 

Key points:  

• Macro: US growth revised to 3.8%, near two-year high; Trump announces new import tariffs 
• Equities:  Stocks lower for 3^rd straight session on hot GDP data; Intel up 9%.
• FX: USDJPY neared 150; AUDUSD slipped, set for a second weekly loss 
• Commodities: Silver topped $45 an ounce for the first time in 14 years 
• Fixed income: Treasuries fell at the front and belly on stronger data 

------------------------------------------------------------------  

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

 Macro: 

• US growth was revised to 3.8% annualised in Q2, the fastest in almost two years, on stronger consumer spending. The rebound followed a Q1 contraction, with consumption up 2.5% annualised and business investment rising 7.3%. Looking ahead, forecasters expect some pickup in 2026, helped by Trump’s tax law and lower interest rates, though growth is still seen sub-2% over the next few years.
• US initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 in the third week of September, beating expectations of 235,000, the lowest in two months. Unemployment claims dropped to 1,926,000 in the second week, the lowest since late May.
• Core consumer prices in Tokyo’s Ku-area increased 2.5% year-on-year in September 2025, matching August and below the expected 2.8%. Inflation remained above the BoJ's 2% target, prompting rate hike speculation. July BOJ minutes indicated readiness for further tightening if economic conditions align with projections.
• SNB held its policy rate at 0.0% in Q3 and is ready to intervene in FX markets if necessary, with inflation forecasts unchanged.
• European diplomats warned Moscow that NATO will respond forcefully to any further airspace violations, including shooting down Russian aircraft. Russia denies breaching Estonian airspace or testing NATO, saying its flights follow international rules. Recent incursions on NATO’s eastern flank have tested the alliance’s resolve, splitting leaders between caution and calls for tougher action.
• US durable goods orders rose 2.9% to $312.1 billion in August 2025, exceeding expectations despite tariff effects. Transport equipment, especially defense (+50.1%) and nondefense aircraft (+21.6%), led the increase, with gains in machinery and metal products but a decline in computers.
• Trump announced new import tariffs effective Oct. 1: 50% on kitchen cabinets, 30% on upholstered furniture, and 25% on heavy trucks. He cited national security and the protection of domestic industry from foreign-made products "flooding the United States."
• US existing home sales decreased by 0.2% to 4.00 million in August 2025, above the expected 3.96 million but below the yearly average. Housing inventory dropped 1.3% to 1.53 million units, with 4.6 months' supply, while the median price increased 2% annually.

Equities:  

• US - US stocks fell for a third straight session Thursday as strong economic data tempered hopes for further Fed cuts. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 each lost 0.5%, while the Dow dropped 175 points, with all sectors but energy in the red. Jobless claims fell to 218K and Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.8%, signalling economic resilience. Odds of an October 25bps cut declined sharply. Tech led losses: Oracle slid 5%, Tesla fell 4%. CarMax plunged 20% on weak earnings, while Intel jumped 9% after approaching Apple for investment. Investors now await Friday’s PCE inflation data for Fed guidance. 
• EU - European stocks fell sharply Thursday, mirroring global declines amid concerns over higher rates and new US trade barriers. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 dropped 0.6% to 5,435, while the STOXX 600 slid 0.7% to 550. Yields surged after strong US data reduced expectations for further Fed cuts, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors. Ferrari, Adidas, Stellantis, and Saint-Gobain lost over 2%. Biotech stocks tumbled as US authorities launched national security probes into medical supply imports, with Siemens Healthineers, Sartorius Stedim, and Philips down more than 3%. H&M bucked the trend, soaring 10% on stronger-than-expected Q3 profit. 
• HK- The Hang Seng slipped 34 points (0.13%) to 26,485 on Thursday, reversing Wednesday’s rally amid caution ahead of the US PCE inflation data and China’s upcoming holidays. Losses in property and financials weighed on the index, tracking mainland weakness despite the PBoC’s CNY 600bn MLF operation to maintain liquidity. Sentiment was also dampened by Wall Street’s retreat, though downside was limited as Hong Kong recovered from Typhoon Ragasa. Lenovo (-4%), Want Want (-3.3%), China Hongqiao (-3.1%), and Zhaojin Mining (-2.5%) led declines, while BYD rose 1.7% after strong European sales, surpassing Tesla for a second month. 

Earnings this week: 

• Friday: New World, DCM Holdings, Danieli, Crediabank 

FX: 

• EURUSD fell up to 0.8% to 1.1646, the sharpest intraday drop since 2 Sept, as risk-off flows lifted the dollar amid reports NATO warned it would shoot down any Russian aircraft violating allied airspace. 
• USDCHF slipped 0.7% to 0.8005, with CHF firmer even as the SNB halted its easing cycle and downplayed the impact of US tariffs. 
• USDJPY rose 0.6% to 149.86, nearing 150; BoJ minutes flagged the risk of being too cautious on hikes, while strong US growth data supported the greenback. JGBs are set to decline as UST yields climbed on resilient labour data. 
• USDCAD up 0.3% to 1.3942. 
• AUDUSD down 0.1% to 0.6534, set for a second weekly loss ahead of Tuesday’s RBA meeting (CBA sees no change at 3.6%). 
• NZDUSD eased 0.1% to 0.5762; down 1.7% on the week, weakest in G-10. 

Commodities: 

• Oil headed for its biggest weekly gain in over three months as President Trump ramped up pressure on buyers of Russian energy; WTI topped $65 and Brent $69. He urged Turkey’s Erdogan to halt Russian oil purchases and discussed energy security with Hungary’s Orban after rebuking NATO members earlier in the week. 
• Silver climbed above $45 an ounce for the first time in 14 years amid risk-off equities and US economic worries. It rose up to 2.6% Thursday and is up 55% this year, outpacing gold’s 43%. Gold was little changed at $3,737.87, about $53 below Tuesday’s record. 

Fixed income:  

• Treasuries weakened, led by the front and belly, after stronger data. The curve flattened further as the 7-year auction tailed the when-issued by ~0.6bp, with late moves in swap spreads after Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan suggested dropping the federal funds rate. The 10-year rose ~2.5bp to ~4.17%. Gilts underperformed; the UK curve cheapened 7–9bp. 

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.