Asia Market Quick Take – October 1, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Govt. Shut down looms. JOLTS stronger but soften consumer confidence
• Equities: US equities edge higher despite US govt. Shut down concerns
• FX: AUDUSD led G10, near two-week highs after a hawkish RBA
• Commodities: Gold extended a four-day, record-setting rally
• Fixed income: Treasuries rose for a third straight quarter, up about 1.5%

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• US job openings rose by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August 2025, matching expectations. Gains occurred in health care, hospitality, and retail, while construction and federal positions decreased. Openings increased in the South and Midwest but fell in the Northeast and West. Hires and separations remained stable at 5.1 million.
• US consumer confidence fell in September to a five-month low amid rising concerns over jobs and the economy. The Conference Board index dropped 3.6 points to 94.2, below the 96 consensus. The present situation measure fell 7 points to a one-year low, while six-month expectations also declined.
• Trump commented on government spending, stating "we'll probably have" a shutdown after discussions with Schumer and Jeffries. He noted Democrats are taking a risk, as shutdowns could lead to benefit cuts and irreversible medical actions, Reuters reported.
• In July 2025, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index rose 1.8% year-on-year, marking the smallest increase since July 2023, after a 2.2% rise in June, and surpassing the 1.6% forecast. New York led with a 6.4% gain, followed by Chicago (6.2%) and Cleveland (4.5%), with Boston and Detroit also seeing solid increases.
• Germany’s annual inflation rate increased to 2.4% in September 2025, up from 2.2% in August and above the 2.3% forecast. This is the highest rate this year, with prices for goods and services accelerating. Energy and food inflation eased slightly, while core inflation rose to 2.8%. Monthly consumer prices rose by 0.2%, with the EU-harmonised CPI also increasing by 2.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month.

  Equities: 

• US - Equities edged higher despite shutdown worries: S&P 500 rose 0.4%, Dow hit a record with an 82-point gain, and Nasdaq increased 0.3%. A shutdown remains likely if lawmakers don't deal by Wednesday midnight, possibly delaying key economic data. Investors are wary due to slowing labor markets and high valuations. Healthcare stocks jumped, led by Pfizer (+2.6%), while airlines like Southwest (-2.8%) fell. Tech stocks saw modest gains from Nvidia-related developments. For the month, S&P 500 rose 3%, Dow 1%, and Nasdaq 5%; quarterly gains were 7%, 5%, and 11%.
• Hong Kong - HSI rose 0.9% to 26,855, a two-week high, driven by AI optimism and expected Beijing policy support. September saw a 7% jump, with the quarter up 11.6%. Gains were limited by US political concerns and profit-taking before China's Oct. 1–8 holiday. ZG Group surged 15% on a share buyback, MMG Ltd. rose 7.5% on debt repayment, and Kuaishou, Akeso, Geely Auto, and SMIC also performed well.
• Japan - Nikkei 225 decreased 0.25% to 44,933, while the Topix increased 0.19% to 3,138. Japanese shares were mixed due to weak economic data, with retail sales and industrial production declining. The Bank of Japan's summary revealed divided opinions on rate changes. Tech stocks like Advantest, SoftBank, and Tokyo Electron saw losses.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday – AcuityBrands, Conagra, Rezolve, Novagold, Cal-Maine Foods, RPM
• Thursday – Angiodynamics
• Friday – N/A

FX:

• The US government is edging toward a shutdown, potentially delaying a key labour report later this week. The Australian dollar led G10 gains versus the greenback: RBA kept the cash rate at 3.6% and signalled September‑quarter inflation may be higher. The Aussie is near a two‑week high after the RBA’s hawkish tilt and a softer US dollar on shutdown concerns; AUDUSD is steady around 0.6614 after touching 0.6629, the highest since 18 September, and is up 1.1% in September.
• The yen weakened after the BOJ’s Tankan, with USDJPY rising to 148.08 as large‑manufacturer confidence improved for a second straight quarter.
• EURUSD gained 0.1% to 1.1738 as French inflation quickened on stronger services and smaller energy declines, though it remains well below the ECB’s 2% target. EURCHF slipped 0.1% to 0.9345 after the SNB’s biggest franc sales in more than three years in the second quarter.
• USDCAD was little changed at 1.3918, lagging most G10 peers. NZDUSD was steady at 0.5795 after a 1.7% fall in September, consolidating in the lower end of a descending channel; oversold momentum should help limit dips ahead of next week’s RBNZ meeting.