Asia Market Quick Take – 14 July, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 14 July, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: Trump reinstates blockade on Straits of Hormuz 
• Equities: Chipmakers fell with Nasdaq 100 –1.9% on higher oil; Bank earnings ahead 
• FX: USD strengthens on Iran tensions, Waller hawkish; NZD gains on RBNZ hike expectations 
• Commodities: Oil surges while gold and silver plunge 
• Fixed income: Treasuries sell off; front end prices July hike risk 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• Trump reinstated the US blockade of Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all cargo passing through. US Central Command is reportedly planning multiple days of strikes on Iran, hurting hopes for a quick shipping recovery and reviving global inflation fears.
• UK like-for-like retail sales rose 1.7% y/y in June 2026, below the 2.9% forecast and down from 3.4% in May, the weakest since February. World Cup matches and a heatwave lifted clothing, cooling products, food, drink, and pubs, while non-food sales grew 1.2% on strong online demand. Overall spending rose 1.9%, with essentials up 2.2% and travel steady, but the BRC warned that politics and the Iran conflict may weigh on future sales.
• Singapore’s economy grew 5.7% year-on-year in Q2 2026, down from 6.3% in Q1, advance MTI estimates show. Manufacturing expanded 12.2%, up from 8%. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP rose 1.1% after 1.3% in Q1. 

Equities:  

• US: US equities fell on Monday as a chipmaker rout and surging oil prices weighed on sentiment. S&P 500 closed down 0.8% at 7,515.34, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.9%, and the Dow Jones fell 0.3% to 52,498.64. The VIX surged 14%, its largest move in five weeks. Nvidia led S&P 500 declines, falling 3.5%, while AppLovin was the worst performer, dropping 12.7%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index sank 4.8%. Energy was the standout sector, gaining 3.2% — its best day since 3 February. In after-hours trading, Trex (TREX) rose 4.6%, while Brown-Forman (BF/B) slipped 0.4% after its CEO announced plans to step down. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures extended losses overnight, down 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. 
• EU: European equities declined on Monday as renewed US-Iran hostilities fuelled inflation concerns and weighed on risk appetite. Mining shares came under pressure as metals prices fell broadly — gold slid as much as 1.8% and silver dropped 3.1% — with European miners including Hochschild, KGHM, and Fresnillo flagged as stocks to watch. Industrials also fell as wholesale inflation fears resurfaced. Akzo Nobel rejected an $8.6 billion offer from Nippon for its paint unit. 
• Asia: Asian equities face a difficult session on Tuesday, pinned between a tech selloff and higher oil prices. The Kospi opened down 0.6% to 6,769.06, entering bear market territory after a drawdown exceeding 25% from recent highs, though the index remains up approximately 62% year-to-date. SK Hynix ADRs slid 9.3% in the US session, weighing on the Korean market. TSMC ADRs slipped nearly 3% despite reporting a 36% jump in quarterly revenue. The Hang Seng Tech Index, which fell 36% between an October peak and a June low, has seen some stabilisation as investor sentiment toward Alibaba and Tencent begins to turn more positive. The Nikkei is expected to open lower, with JGBs also set to decline as oil-driven inflation concerns mount. The ASX 200 futures fell 0.1%, implying an early loss of around 0.5%. The Singapore dollar was steady after Q2 GDP data. 

Earnings this week: 

• Tuesday: JPMorgan; Bank of America; Wells Fargo; Citigroup; Goldman Sachs
• Wednesday: Morgan Stanley; United Airlines; BlackRock, ASML
• Thursday: Netflix; GE Aerospace; Alcoa 

FX: 

• USD strengthened broadly overnight on renewed safe-haven demand after further US strikes on Iran and hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller, lifting the Dollar Index 0.31% to 97.50, its biggest gain since June 23.  
• USDJPY held near 162.45 after Monday’s sharp rise. Japanese authorities are reportedly softening their tolerance slightly, though intervention risk remains a watch point. Rising JGB yields are adding complexity to the yen outlook. 
• NZD rose 0.2% to 0.5761 against the USD after RBNZ Chief Economist Conway's comments solidified rate hike expectations. New Zealand's 2-year note yield climbed 6 basis points to 3.62%. 
• USDCNH rose nearly 0.1% to 6.7855 and USDCNY gained nearly 0.1% to 6.7810, defying three consecutive days of steady strengthening by the PBOC via its daily fixing. Deutsche Bank estimates the yuan remains approximately 15% undervalued against the EUR. 
• SGD was unchanged around 1.2950 against the greenback following the release of Singapore's Q2 GDP data rises 5.7% YoY beating estimate 5.5%. 
•  Markets now turn to upcoming US CPI data as the next key catalyst for Fed expectations and the dollar’s near-term direction. 

Commodities: 

• WTI crude jumped 9.4% to settle near $78 a barrel — its biggest one-day gain in more than three months — after President Trump reinstated the Iranian blockade and demanded a 20% toll on all Hormuz cargo. WTI extended gains in early Asia trading, rising a further 0.6% to $78.65, with futures trading above $79 a barrel. Brent closed above $83 on Monday. 
• Gold dropped 2.6% to $3,997 per ounce, its largest single-day decline since 24 June and the second-lowest close this year. Silver fell 3.1% to $58.03 per ounce, with both metals pressured by rising real yields and a stronger dollar. 
• Copper and other industrial metals declined as renewed US-Iran hostilities clouded the global growth outlook. European mining stocks were flagged as likely to be active, with broad-based weakness across the metals complex. 

Fixed income:  

• US Treasury yields rose 4–6 basis points across the curve in a bear-flattening move, led by the front-end and belly. The 1-year yield rose 5.2 basis points to 4.114%, the 10-year rose 5.1 basis points to 4.614%, and the 30-year rose 3.7 basis points to 5.1%. The move was driven by Fed Governor Waller's hawkish comments and surging oil prices.
• Fed swaps priced in approximately 50% odds of a July rate hike following Waller's remarks, with a full 25 basis point hike priced in by the September meeting. Two- to five-year Treasury yields reached new 2026 highs. Societe Generale recommended gradually building long positions in 2–5 year Treasuries, citing attractive carry and yields near year-to-date highs.
• Rising JGB yields to multi-decade highs are expected to reduce Japanese demand for US Treasuries on a sustained basis, as domestic pension funds, insurers, and banks increasingly favour JGBs over foreign debt. A 20-year JGB auction is scheduled for Tuesday in Japan. 

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