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Asia Market Quick Take – 12 August, 2026
Key points:
- Macro: SoH closed till Iran’s demands met. RBA holds rates with hawkish tone.
- Equities: Sea limited rallied 16% after Q2 revenue beat
- FX: USD holds steady pre-CPI; JPY hovers near 160, AUD edges higher
- Commodities: WTI up a fourth straight session; spot gold at a two-month high
- Fixed income: Treasury yields fell while curve continues to steepen
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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.
Macro:
- RBA kept its policy rate at 4.35% as expected, with Governor Bullock striking a hawkish tone and warning that further tightening is “quite possible.”
- Iran says it will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until its demands are met, supporting high oil prices, though Pakistan’s defence minister says the US and Iran are reportedly “close to some sort of arrangement” despite the impasse.
- The July NFIB small business index rose 2.4 points to 99.8, the highest since August 2025, with 8 of 10 components improving as hiring plans surged and inflation pressures eased.
- ADP showed private payrolls up 8,250 per week to July 25, versus a 23,000 July nonfarm job loss and 103,000 in downward revisions to May–June.
- US existing home sales fell 1.7% in July to 4.05m (vs 4.06m expected), after a 1.4% drop, with declines in the South and Midwest, flat sales in the West, and a 2% rise in the Northeast. Inventory fell 1.9% to 1.54m and the median price rose 2% y/y to $434,100.
- Singapore’s Q2 GDP was revised up to 5.9% from 5.7%, below Q1’s 6.3%, supported by AI-related demand, while the broader index hit a record high on gains in communications, energy minerals, producer manufacturing, and financials.
Equities:
- US: The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Tuesday, extending its retreat from record highs, as the Strait of Hormuz deadlock pushed oil higher and investors held back ahead of today's CPI. The Nasdaq 100 also dropped 0.3%. Communication services led declines, with AppLovin falling sharply while Utilities and energy stocks outperformed. Weakness was concentrated in large-cap tech and the Mag 7 basket. Sea Ltd. ADRs were up approximately 16.7% on Tuesday after Q2 revenue beat and the company raised its profit forecast. After hours, CoreWeave surged after reporting quarterly sales that beat expectations and raising its revenue outlook. Super Micro Computer gained 7.5% after providing a revenue forecast that topped analyst estimates and doubling gross margins to 17.5%. Lumentum reported revenue growth of 110% to $1.01b, beating estimates while earnings came in at $3.23/share, from $0.88 a year ago.
- EU: European equities eked out a fresh record high on Tuesday despite a mixed session. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.24% to a new record close of 6,551.22, up for four consecutive sessions. The DAX gained 0.3% to 26,391.42, also at a 52-week high. The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% to 10,844.19, dragged by AstraZeneca (-1.2%) and Spirax Group (-5.6%). The SMI dropped 0.4%, with Roche and Givaudan leading declines. Energy stocks led gains across the continent. Alcon rose 4.7% after a beat-and-raise result. ASML gained 2.7% and Siemens Energy rose 2.6%. Legal & General shares tumbled as bearish bets built.
- Asia: Asian markets are set to open lower this morning, following Wall Street's decline and with CPI and Hormuz developments in focus. The Kospi opened 1.5% higher at 6,438.50 this morning, boosted by Samsung Electronics (+4.1%) on shareholder return expectations and SK Hynix strength. The STI gained 1.0% on Tuesday to 5,754.17, led by Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (+11%), extending its post-earnings rally. Japan's Nikkei was closed Tuesday for a public holiday and reopens today; USD/JPY is hovering near 159.29, approaching the key 160 intervention level. Hong Kong futures pointed to losses at the open, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling 2.9% overnight. Tencent reports today, with JD.com due Thursday — both closely watched for AI spending signals. Foreign investors have been net sellers of Korea stocks (-$6.2bn this month) while turning net buyers of Taiwan (+$1.7bn).
Earnings this week:
- Wednesday: Tencent; Brinker International; Cerebras Systems
- Thursday: Applied Materials; JD.com
- Friday: Kweichow Moutai
FX:
- USD steadied on Tuesday ahead of today's July CPI print. BofA analysts note the dollar is more sensitive to a downside surprise, which would "all but rule out" a September Fed rate hike. Consensus expects headline CPI at +0.1% m/m and core at +0.2% m/m.
- USDJPY is hovering just below 160 — a level seen as a key intervention threshold. Reports indicate US support for coordinated yen intervention raises the stakes for traders short the yen, while also increasing pressure on the BOJ to tighten policy. (2)
- AUD is the best G10 performer today (+0.06%), consolidating gains after RBA Governor Michele Bullock adopted a hawkish tone following Tuesday's hold decision, warning further tightening is "quite possible."
- EUR faces a ceiling from elevated oil prices, which weigh on Europe's terms of trade. Higher energy costs are seen as stagflationary for the eurozone, limiting the currency's ability to rally even as rate differentials shift in its favor.
Commodities:
- WTI settled near $83 a barrel (+1.3%), a fourth straight session of gains, as Iran reiterated plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. In early Asian trading Wednesday, WTI extended gains to $83.50, a fifth consecutive advance. Brent closed near $89. The Hormuz standoff remains the dominant price driver; the Trump administration expects supply disruptions of approximately 600,000 bpd through end-2027.
- Spot gold climbed to a two-month high above $4,400 an ounce in early Tuesday trading before pulling back 0.5% to settle near $4,370 as traders balanced Hormuz deal prospects against the upcoming CPI print. The metal has gained over 3.6% over the prior two sessions, breaking above its 100-day moving average and attracting ETF inflows and technical buying.
- LME copper is trading near record levels above $14,000 a ton, supported by a fresh LME warehouse squeeze, reports of a Congo copper concentrate export ban (which analysts note captures only a small portion of exports), and US stockpiling ahead of a potential tariff decision on refined copper imports. Chile's government allowed state-owned Codelco to retain 100% of its 2025 profit — approximately $2.42 billion — to fund strategic investments.
Fixed income:
- Treasuries ended with small gains despite oil settling higher. The 10-year yield fell approximately 1.7bps to 4.692% and the 30-year fell approximately 1.2bps to 5.242%. CTA funds hold record short bond positions — having tripled their underweight since end-July according to UBS — leaving the market acutely vulnerable to a sharp rally if today's CPI print comes in soft.
- The Treasury's $58 billion 3-year note auction on Tuesday drew solid demand, pricing at 4.291% — the highest yield for the tenor since February 2025 — with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.71, above the prior auction's 2.60.
- The 5s30s spread has widened as the curve continues to steepen. The long end faces persistent upward pressure from term premium, large fiscal deficits, and heavy corporate issuance duration. JPMorgan has raised its year-end forecasts for 10- and 30-year yields. Treasury Secretary Bessent has reportedly taken steps over the past week aimed at easing pressure on the Treasury market after long-term yields surged to a 19-year high.
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