Quick Take Asia

Asia Market Quick Take – September 4, 2025

Macro 6 minutes to read
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Key points:

  • Macro: US job openings fell by 176k, below expectations
  • Equities: Nasdaq 100 gains 1% on Google; Macy’s up 20% on strong earnings
  • FX: USD weakened as job openings fell; GBP and AUD strengthened
  • Commodities: Gold remain elevated near record after 7-day rally
  • Fixed income: Curve bull‑flattened; 2‑year yield at 3.6%, lowest since May

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Macro:

  • US job openings fell by 176,000 to 7.18 million in July 2025, the lowest since September 2024 and below expectations of 7.4 million. Health care, arts, entertainment, recreation, mining, and logging saw significant declines. Regionally, the South had the largest drop (-161,000), while the West gained 113,000 openings.
  • US manufactured goods orders decreased by 1.3% to $603.6 billion in July 2025, following a steep 4.8% decline. Transportation equipment orders fell (-9.5%), notably nondefense aircraft and parts (-32.7%). In contrast, orders for machinery, primary metals, and computers rose slightly.
  • US job quits were steady at 3.208 million in July 2025, the lowest since December 2024, with a constant quits rate of 2.0% for the fourth consecutive month. Construction and transportation saw declines, while professional and business services experienced a rise. Regionally, quits fell in the Midwest and Northeast, rose in the South, and remained unchanged in the West.
  • The UK Services PMI increased to 54.2 in August 2025, the highest since April 2024. New business saw strong growth, while employment declined for the eleventh month. Input and output prices rose sharply. Business sentiment improved, with 49% expecting higher activity next year.
  • The Eurozone Composite PMI rose slightly to 51 in August 2025, up from 50.9, surpassing expectations of 50.7. This marks the third consecutive month of expanding private sector activity, with manufacturing rebounding (50.7) and slower growth in services (50.5). New orders increased for the first time in 15 months, despite a decline in export orders.

Equities: 

  • US –Wall Street closed mixed Wednesday as tech gains offset broader weakness. The S&P 500 rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 1%, driven by Alphabet’s 9.1% surge after a favorable antitrust ruling, while Apple climbed 3.8%. The Dow slipped 24 points as financials and energy lagged. Economic data showed job openings at their lowest since September and factory orders down 1.3%, fueling bets on a 25 bps Fed rate cut as Treasury yields fell. Macy’s jumped over 19% after a significant earnings estimates. In after-hours, Figma fell 14.2% after reporting earnings that were below expectations despite growing revenue by 41% yoy. Salesforce fell 5.6% after forecasting a conservative quarter ahead after posting strong Q2 earnings - adjusted earnings of $2.91/share vs $2.78 est while revenue climbed 10% yoy to $10.24 billion vs $10.14 billion est.
  • EU - European stocks rebounded Wednesday, with the STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 up 0.7% after a sharp drop in the prior session driven by fiscal concerns and rising bond yields. Tech led gains as SAP, ASML, and Nokia rose up to 3%, while industrials and luxury names like Airbus, Schneider, and LVMH also advanced. In contrast, Swiss Life slipped 1.2% on weaker earnings, and M&G fell 2.5% despite modest profit and AUM growth.
  • HK- Hang Seng dropped 153 points (0.6%) to 25,343 on Wednesday, extending losses as global markets fell on fiscal concerns. Dow futures weakened after U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth month, while a U.S. court ruling most Trump tariffs illegal added uncertainty, though measures remain until Oct. 14. All sectors declined after a Chinese military parade spurred profit-taking in defense stocks. Losses were partly offset by data showing China’s services activity hit a 15-month high. Locally, regulators launched an insider trading probe involving HKEX staff. Major laggards included Henderson Land (-3.7%), Swire Properties (-3.2%), and BYD (-2.5%).

Earnings this week:

  • Thursday - Broadcom, Lululemon, DocuSign

FX:

  • USD weakened as July job openings fell more than expected, with unemployed workers outnumbering available jobs for the first time since 2021. This increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, especially ahead of ADP and NFP reports. Fed officials discussed potential rate cuts, while the Beige Book noted little change in economic activity amid economic uncertainty and tariffs. The Dollar Index (DXY) stayed near the lower end of its range.
  • G10 currencies strengthened, led by GBP and AUD, with AUD supported by a better-than-expected Q2 GDP growth of 1.8% year-on-year. GBPUSD rose to 1.3440, and AUDUSD to 0.6540.
  • EUR saw slight gains from the Dollar's weakness but stayed below 1.1700 due to weak Services PMI data from the Eurozone.
  • JPY strengthened slightly, with USDJPY testing below the 148 level as US-Japan yield differentials narrowed.
  • China's Services PMI rose to 53.0 in August, the strongest since May 2024. USDCNH traded 7.1390.
  • Economic Calendar - AU Balance of Trade, Swiss Inflation Rate, Swiss Unemployment Rate, UK S&P Global Construction PMI, EU Retail Sales, US ADP Employment Change, CA Balance of Trade, US Balance of Trade, US Initial Jobless Claims, US ISM Service PMI

Commodities:

  • Oil retreated after reports that OPEC+ will weigh fresh output increases at this weekend’s meeting. WTI slid 2.5% to settle just below $64, erasing Tuesday’s gain. Softer‑than‑expected US data added pressure by dimming the longer‑term demand outlook.
  • Gold hovered near a record after a seven‑day rally as soft US data stoked bets on a Fed cut this month. Spot was around $3,556 after a $3,578.51 peak, with weaker yields and a softer dollar supporting prices ahead of Friday’s payrolls.

Fixed income:

  • US Treasuries rallied after a softer‑than‑expected JOLTS print and a downward revision to the prior month, with gains largely holding into the close despite a couple of sizeable block trades fading the bid. Focus now turns to labour data and the implications for September’s policy decision, with ADP today and nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The curve bull‑flattened, with yields 3–7 bps richer, tightening 2s10s by 2 bps and 5s30s by 2.5 bps. The front and belly led: the 2‑year fell to its lowest since May and the 5‑year to its richest since April amid a modest dovish repricing.

 

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