Asia Market Quick Take – January 19, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Trump pressures 8 European countries with tariffs to buy Greenland
• Equities: S&P futures down 0.8% on Trump’s 10% European tariff, potentially rising to 25%
• FX: Dollar Declines After Trump's Tariff Threat on Europe
• Commodities: Trump's tariffs on Europe boost gold and silver to record highs
• Fixed income: US, German, French bonds rise after Trump announces tariffs

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump proposed tariffs on eight European countries to pressure them into buying Greenland, starting at 10% in February and potentially rising to 25% by June. European leaders may reconsider last year's trade deal, with Macron possibly activating the EU's anti-coercion instrument.
• Iranian President Pezeshkian warned of war if Supreme Leader Khamenei is attacked, responding to US President Trump's comments calling for Khamenei's removal and criticizing him as "a sick man."
• The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index dropped to 37.0 in January 2026, showing ongoing challenges in the US housing market. Builder sentiment declined across all areas, with significant price cuts and increased sales incentives being reported.
• U.S. industrial production rose 0.4% in December, exceeding expectations. Manufacturing output increased by 0.2%, while utilities surged 2.6%, driven by a 12% rise in natural gas. Mining output fell 0.7%. Capacity utilization reached 76.3%, still below the long-term average.
• U.S. manufacturing output rose 0.2%, surpassing forecasts, with durable goods seeing slight gains in primary metals and aerospace but declines in wood products and motor vehicles. Nondurable goods rose 0.3%, led by food and plastics. In December 2025, capacity utilization remained at 75.6%, below the long-term average.

Equities: 

• US - S&P 500 and Nasdaq were little changed, while the Dow slipped 80 points. Market attention turned to President Trump’s signal that Kevin Hassett may remain in his current role, increasing expectations that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh could become the next Fed chair. Chipmakers such as TSMC, Nvidia, and Micron advanced on strong results, AI optimism, and a US–Taiwan deal targeting $250 billion in US production investment. Financials lagged on concerns over a potential cap on credit card rates. This morning, S&P 500 futures gapped lower 0.8% on Trump’s decision to impose up to 10% tariffs on eight European countries starting Feb 1, rising to 25% in June until there’s a deal for the “purchase of Greenland’.
• EU - Eurozone’s STOXX 50 slipped 0.3% to 6,021, while the STOXX 600 eased to 614. Luxury names led declines after warnings of weaker Q4 earnings, with LVMH, Hermes, Ferrari, and EssilorLuxottica falling over 2–4%. BASF dropped 3.7% as colder weather pushed European natural gas prices up more than 10%, raising cost concerns. In contrast, ASML gained nearly 2% on continued tech and AI optimism, and Siemens Energy jumped over 6% after confirming its dividend. For the week, the STOXX 50 rose 0.5% and STOXX 600 added 0.7%.
• HK - Hang Seng slipped 79 points (0.3%) to 26,845 on Friday, extending losses as broad sector weakness outweighed early gains. Investors stayed cautious ahead of key China data due next week, including Q4 GDP, industrial output, retail sales, and the loan prime rate. Beijing’s tighter margin‑financing rules effective January 19 added further drag. Still, the Hang Seng rose 2.3% for the week after the PBoC signaled possible RRR and rate cuts. Notable decliners included Chow Tai Fook, Haidilao, Pop Mart, Tencent Music, and Xiaomi.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday - 3M, Netflix, United Airlines, U.S. Bancorp, KeyBank, D.R. Horton, Interactive Brokers, Zions Bancorporation
• Wednesday - Johnson & Johnson, Charles Schwab, Prologis, Halliburton, Ally Financial
• Thursday - Procter & Gamble, GE Aerospace, Intel, Abbott
• Friday - SLB (formerly Schlumberger), Ericsson, Comerica

FX:

• USD dropped against all G10 currencies as investors turned to safe-haven assets following President Trump's tariff threats targeting eight European nations due to NATO exercises in Greenland.
• USDJPY decreased 0.3% to 157.60, ending a third consecutive weekly decline, while USDCHF fell 0.4% to 0.7998 as both the JPY and the CHF attracted safety-driven demand.
• EURUSD managed a 0.2% increase to 1.1621, recovering from earlier losses, supported by leveraged short-covering, whereas GBPUSD rose 0.1% to 1.3393 after reaching an intraday low of 1.3331, also aided by short-covering. EURCHF slipped 0.3% to 0.9286 as broader market dynamics favored the franc.

Commodities:

• Oil prices fell as Iran tensions eased and broader markets turned risk-off amid President Donald Trump’s reported bid to buy Greenland, with Brent below $64 and WTI near $59. While tensions did not significantly escalate, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said several thousand people had died in this month’s anti-government demonstrations, after earlier trader concerns about potential supply disruptions from the OPEC member.
• Gold and silver hit record highs after US President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs on goods from eight European nations—including France, Germany and the UK—that opposed his Greenland plan, taking effect on 1 February and rising to 25% in June, stoking fears of European retaliation and a major trade war that boosted safe-haven demand. Spot gold climbed 1.7% to $4,676.22 after peaking at $4,690.59, silver surged 3.9% to $93.6305 after touching $94.1213, and platinum and palladium also advanced.

Fixed income:

• US, German and French government bond futures rose after President Donald Trump announced 10% tariffs—rising to 25% in June—on eight European nations including Denmark over Greenland-related NATO exercises, spurring haven demand, with Treasury futures advancing, 10-year bund futures up 17 ticks to 128.31, similar-tenor French debt up 27 ticks to 121.23; SIFMA recommended a global holiday for cash Treasury trading today.

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