Asia Market Quick Take – December 3, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Putin's talks with US envoys useful; Ukraine deal remains elusive
• Equities: Marvell jumps 10% on strong Q3 results; CrowdStrike dips 1.5%
• FX: Yen snaps three-day rally; AUD leads G-10
• Commodities: Silver near record, set for best year since 1979
• Fixed income: US 10-year yield briefly tops 4.11%, near two-week high

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• President Donald Trump said he plans to announce his pick to lead the Federal Reserve in early 2026 after considering around 10 candidates, hinted at National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett as a possibility, and noted the nominee would require Senate confirmation.
• Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will set new bank and stablecoin rules, work with agencies on Genius Act capital and diversification requirements for stablecoin issuers, finalise Basel III Endgame, and refine the big‑bank surcharge to support market liquidity and affordable home ownership.
• The Kremlin said Vladimir Putin held “very useful” talks with US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, but no Ukraine deal was reached; aide Yuri Ushakov called the talks constructive, noted no territorial compromise, and said any Putin–Trump meeting hinges on progress as both sides intend to keep working.
• The US Economic Optimism Index climbed 9.1% to 47.9 in December, recovering from a 17-month low post-shutdown resolution but still below neutral. Six-Month Outlook rose 11%, Personal Financial Outlook increased 6.7%, and confidence in federal policies improved by 10.5%.

Equities: 

• US - US stocks rebounded Tuesday as the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq gained 0.9%, and Dow added 200 points, recovering from Monday’s sharp selloff. Bitcoin’s bounce lifted risk appetite, while AI and software names steadied sentiment—Nvidia up 0.9%, Palantir 1.9%, though Broadcom fell 1.2% on profit-taking. Gains were driven by outsized movers: Boeing surged 10.2%, Intel jumped 8.7%, and AppLovin climbed 4.7%. Traders focused on upcoming economic data and the delayed September PCE report ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, with markets still pricing a 25 bp cut. Bond yields rose earlier as global curves reset, limiting the rally. Marvell Technology surged nearly 10% in after-hours trading following robust Q3 results and optimistic projections for data center revenue next fiscal year. American Eagle Outfitters also rose 10% on anticipated strong holiday sales. CrowdStrike down 1.5% after reporting revenue that was above estimates and raising Q4 revenue forecast.
• EU - European stocks closed higher Tuesday as investors assessed global rate outlooks. The Eurozone’s STOXX 50 rose 0.5% to 5,690, while STOXX 600 edged up to 576. Expectations that the ECB will keep rates unchanged persisted after November inflation unexpectedly ticked up to 2.2%. Banks gained as Japanese bond stability eased euro yield concerns—BNP Paribas and ING rose nearly 2%, and Santander added 1.5% after selling a 3.5% stake in its Polish unit for $473 million. Bayer surged over 12% after the U.S. government urged the Supreme Court to hear its bid to limit lawsuits over Roundup weedkiller.
• HK - Hang Seng rose 62 points (0.2%) to 26,095 Tuesday, reversing prior losses on consumer stock gains. Traders awaited signals from China’s Central Economic Work Conference and December Politburo meeting while hunting undervalued sectors. Hong Kong retail sales posted their strongest rise since late 2023 in October, marking a fourth straight gain. Early advances faded as mainland markets slipped ahead of private PMIs. China Vanke sought a one-year bond extension amid liquidity stress. Giant Biogene jumped 8.2% on a buyback plan, BYD climbed 2% on higher EV sales, while J&T Global and Swire gained, but Xpeng fell 5.9% on weak deliveries.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday: Royal Bank of Canada, Salesforce, Dollar Tree, Macy's, Snowflake, C3.ai
• Thursday: Kroger, Dollar General, DocuSign, Ulta Beauty, Hewlett Packard Enterprise
• Friday: Victoria's Secret, MoneyHero

FX:

• The dollar steadied in early December—a historically tough period—as G10 FX traded in tight ranges amid scant US data and a Fed blackout, with the Dollar Index having fallen about 0.9% on average in December since 1995; the yen headed for its first loss in four sessions as the impact of Governor Ueda’s December‑hike commentary faded—USDJPY up 0.3% to 155.91—while a Finance Ministry advisory board urged caution on rising debt‑servicing costs
• EURUSD was marginally higher at 1.1616 after a six‑day rally with large options expiries near 1.1550, EURGBP rose 0.1% to 0.8797 as the BoE flagged risks from the fixed‑income basis trade, euro‑area inflation ticked up supporting the ECB’s stance against further cuts.
• Loonie and Aussie outperformed with USDCAD down 0.2% to 1.3977 and AUDUSD up 0.3% to 0.6561, while ANZ no longer expects a final RBA rate cut in 1H 2026.

Commodities:

• Silver traded near a record high on bets of Federal Reserve easing and tight supply, with markets pricing a quarter-point cut in December and is heading for its best annual performance since 1979 after nearly doubling this year; it rose 1% to $58.56 as gold fell 0.6% to $4,208.68, pushing the gold-silver ratio to the lowest in more than a year, while platinum declined and palladium advanced.
• Oil fell in a choppy session as traders weighed the Russia–Ukraine conflict on a key day for peace talks, with WTI sliding 1.2% to settle just above $58 a barrel after an intraday swing of about $1.40, as President Vladimir Putin threatened retaliatory measures against vessels from nations aiding Ukraine and emphasised the need for economic growth in Russia.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures firmed into the US afternoon as early losses were unwound, leaving yields modestly richer across the curve, with little to sustain a larger move and attention on the next Fed chair after President Donald Trump said he plans to announce his selection in early 2026; US 10-year yields ended around 4.08%, little changed after briefly topping 4.11%—the highest in nearly two weeks—while corporate supply had less impact than Monday as eight issuers sold a combined $5.65 billion and swap spreads were little changed.

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