Asia Market Quick Take – August 19, 2025

Key points:

• Macro: Trump expresses optimism regarding Russia Ukraine talks
• Equities: Intel up 5% post market after Softbank commits $2b stake
• FX: USDJPY approaches 148; driven by Dollar strength and yields
• Commodities: Oil held steady at $63 amid Ukraine ceasefire talks
• Fixed income: Treasury dipped as European bond weakness raised yields

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Trump administration is reportedly considering taking a 10% stake in Intel, potentially making the US government its largest shareholder. This may involve converting CHIPS Act grants, totaling $10.9 billion, into equity, according to Bloomberg News.
• The US Housing Market Index fell to 32 in August 2025 from 33 in July, below the forecast of 34. Current sales conditions dropped to 35, future sales held at 43, and buyer traffic rose to 22. Builder price cuts slightly decreased to 37% from 38% in July.
• After meeting with Zelensky and European leaders, Trump expressed optimism for swift peace and pledged US security support. Although no ceasefire breakthrough was reached with Putin, Russia agreed to allow US and Europe to provide Ukraine with security guarantees for a potential peace deal.

Equities: 

• US - U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq steady and the Dow down 0.1%. Investors are eyeing a busy week ahead with earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe’s, along with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium for clues on interest rate cuts anticipated in September. The Fed's July meeting minutes will be released Wednesday to offer more insights. Geopolitical issues remain relevant following Trump's meetings with European leaders and President Zelensky after his summit with Putin. Intel shares dropped 3.7% amid reports of possible White House interest in acquiring a 10% stake in the chipmaker but rose 5% in the post market after Softbank committed to buy $2b worth of Intel at $23 per share.
• EU - STOXX 50 declined by 0.3% to 5,431, while the STOXX 600 remained flat at 554. Anticipation builds around Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech potentially influencing interest rates, given weaker labor market data supporting FOMC dissenters. Meanwhile, President Trump is meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European leaders in Washington to discuss a peace deal amid concerns about pressure on Kyiv favoring Moscow's terms. On the corporate front, BNP Paribas and Nordea led losses in the banking sector, each falling over 1.5%. Vestas soared 15% following favorable changes in U.S. tax credit regulations, and Novo Nordisk rose more than 6% after cutting Wegovy prices for direct buyers.
• HK - Hang Seng dropped 0.4% to 25,177 on Monday, reversing early gains as property and financial stocks weighed on the index. Investor sentiment weakened amid rising debt repayment risks in Hong Kong’s property sector, with bond maturities set to surge nearly 70% next year. U.S. futures also dipped as President Trump plans new tariffs on semiconductor imports. Markets remained cautious ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Powell is expected to outline policy direction. Standard Chartered fell 5.1% after a U.S. lawmaker called for a sanctions probe, while Longfor (-2.8%), China Resources Land (-2.3%), and Henderson Land (-2.2%) also declined.
• SG - Straits Times Index declined by 1% to close at 4,187.38. Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust was the top performer, gaining 1.1% to 90 cents. All three local banks fell: DBS Bank decreased by 0.6% to $49.60; UOB dropped 1.4% to $34.84; and OCBC Bank dipped 1.3% to $16.68. ST Engineering was the biggest loser on the STI, sliding 3.8% to close at $8.14.

Earnings this week:

• Tuesday: Xiaomi (HKG: 1810), BHP (ASX: BHP), CSL (ASX: CSL), Pop Mart (HKG: 9992), Woodside (ASX: WDS), Home Depot (NYSE: HD), Amer Sports (AS), Viking Holdings (VIK)
• Wednesday: HKEX (HKG: 388), Jiangsu Hengrui (SHA: 600276), Transurban (ASX: TCL), Beijing Kingsoft Office (SHA: 688111), Henderson Land (HKG: 0012), Target (TGT), Estee Lauder (EL), TJX (TJX), Analog Devices (ADI)
• Thursday: Alibaba (HKG:9988), AIA (HKG: 1299), Sinopec (SHA: 600028), Goodman Group (ASX: GMG), Kuaishou (HKG: 1024), Sany Heavy (SHA: 600031), Walmart (WMT), Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY)
• Friday: Bank of Jiangsu (SHA: 600919), CRRC (SHA: 601766), China Coal (HKG: 1898), Hengli Petrochemical (SHE: 000703), China Vanke (SHE: 000002), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ)

FX:

• USD began the week strongly, with the DXY reaching 98.20 due to limited newsflow and the absence of tier 1 data or Fed commentary before Chair Powell's address at Jackson Hole. Geopolitical events, including a potential Trump/Zelensky/European leaders meeting, were in focus after Trump's recent discussions with Putin.
• Against the Dollar, G10 currencies were generally weaker, with the CAD and NZD being exceptions as they remained flat. The JPY, EUR, and GBP experienced the most significant losses, with EURUSD trading around 1.1660. European leaders aim to secure US security guarantees, plan for a possible trilateral meeting, and oppose land swaps.
• GBPUSD moved narrowly from 1.3504 to 1.3565 ahead of UK inflation data on Wednesday, which could influence the BoE's next decision.
• USDJPY rose, nearing 148, driven by the Dollar's strengthening amid EUR's weakness. Japanese CPI data is scheduled for Friday, with interim price action likely influenced by broader macro elements and yield differentials.
• Economic Calendar – RBA Connolly Speech, Canada Inflation Rate, US Building Permits, US Housing Starts

Commodities:

• Oil steadied as traders assessed a possible Ukraine ceasefire, with President Trump promoting a summit between Putin and Zelenskiy after high-level talks. Brent remained below $67, and WTI near $63, after Trump urged Putin to meet Zelenskiy following his White House discussions with the Ukrainian leader.
• Gold held steady as traders weighed US efforts in Ukraine and looked to the Fed's Jackson Hole event for rate cut signals. Spot bullion stayed below $3,336 an ounce after ending nearly flat Monday.

Fixed income:

• Treasury futures faced slight pressure as European bond weakness drove yields higher. Losses persisted, with brisk SOFR options trading ahead of Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole appearance. In Europe, bunds ended their losing streak, while UK rates led a bond selloff, closing with yields up 3 to 5 basis points. Japan's 20-year bond auction will be watched closely due to concerns about government spending impacting demand for long-term debt.

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