Asia Market Quick Take – 28 August, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: All eyes on Fed’s Warsh at Jackson Hole tonight
• Equities: Nvidia surged 8.7%, Salesforce +22.6% and CRWD +20% after earnings
• FX: USD steady pre‑Jackson Hole; AUD outperforms, CAD and CHF strengthen
• Commodities: Record $7bn gold and Bitcoin ETF inflows; WTI above $85
• Fixed income: Treasury yields grind higher; JGBs pressured pre‑auction

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Jackson Hole: All eyes are on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole keynote, where markets expect a hawkish tone; Apollo’s chief economist sees a “hawkish flavor” aimed at anchoring long yields. Fed officials are split ahead of the speech: Kansas City’s Schmid and Cleveland’s Hammack argue policy isn’t restrictive enough, while Boston’s Collins says rates remain only mildly restrictive.
• US Jobless Claims: Initial jobless claims fell 4k to 203k in the week ending 22 August, below the 208k estimate, pointing to continued labor market resilience. Continuing claims also declined 18k to 1.778m.
• Tokyo CPI ex-fresh food rose 1.8% YoY in August, accelerating for a third consecutive month and reinforcing the case for a Bank of Japan rate hike, with September increasingly in focus.
• The Bank of Korea delivered a back-to-back 25bp rate hike, raising its benchmark rate to 3.00% in a 6-1 decision, citing an unprecedented semiconductor boom driving stronger-than-expected growth.
• US–Canada trade talks collapsed, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick accusing Prime Minister Carney of adding last-minute demands and scuttling an emerging deal for domestic political reasons ahead of Alberta's independence vote and Quebec elections.
• Trump reportedly rejected a return to the Iran nuclear agreement in favour of continued economic pressure, according to sources familiar with the matter cited by the Wall Street Journal.

Equities: 

• US — S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,730.99, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.4%, and the Dow added 0.2% to 53,569.44, driven almost entirely by technology. Nvidia surged 8.7%, adding $442 billion in market value after guiding for ~70% revenue growth in FY2028. Salesforce jumped 22.6% on a strong outlook and a deepened Anthropic partnership while Crowdstrike rallied 20% after strong earnings. Every other sector declined, with the equal-weight S&P 500 falling 0.3%. In after-hours trading, Gap rose 11% on a raised earnings outlook while Marvell Technology fell more than 7% after hours despite a modest beat as the deal with Google failed to meaningfully increase its long-term revenue outlook, weighing on Nasdaq futures heading into Friday's Asia open.
• EU — European stocks fell on Thursday, with the Stoxx 600 dropping 0.7% to 651.85, its biggest single-day decline since 23 July. French political uncertainty dominated, with the CAC 40 the worst-performing major index as presidential candidates outlined policies ahead of a key debate. BNP Paribas fell 4.8%, Societe Generale dropped over 4%, and Eiffage led individual declines at -7.4%. Pernod Ricard weighed on consumer staples after warning growth would come in at the lower end of expectations. The DAX bucked the trend, rising 0.3% to 26,367.24, led by SAP's 5.5% gain on Nvidia tailwinds. The FTSE 100 fell 0.8% to 10,792.54, with Shell the largest drag.
• Asia — Asian markets opened lower on Friday, cautious ahead of Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. The Kospi fell 1.1% to 6,836.63 at the open, with South Korean memory names sliding in pre-market despite Nvidia's strong results; the BOK's second consecutive rate hike also tempered sentiment. The STI fell 0.7% on Thursday to 5,684.12, with Genting Singapore the worst performer (-2.3%), while Venture Corp led gainers (+1.7%). Nikkei 225 futures were broadly flat heading into Friday's session, with traders focused on a two-year JGB auction and the Tokyo CPI print. Hang Seng futures pointed to initial declines. Baidu rose as much as 4.2% in Hong Kong on Thursday after announcing it will upgrade its listing to dual-primary status on HKEX from 1 September. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.7% on Thursday.

Earnings this week:

• Friday (28 Aug) — BYD, China Construction Bank, ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China

FX:

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was roughly flat at 1,194.43 as traders stayed cautious ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, leaving the dollar down about 1% in August and ~2.3% over the past month while options flows positioned for a possible rebound.
• In G10, EURUSD was broadly steady at 1.1653 with bullish momentum fading and key support at 1.1570, and GBPUSD was marginally softer at 1.3593 amid limited conviction.
• USDJPY rose to 159.39 as the yen weakened for a fourth session and the effect of July’s joint intervention faded against the still‑wide US‑Japan rate differential.
• AUDUSD was the day’s G10 outperformer at 0.7194 on RBA hike expectations and heavy AUDNZD call demand, while NZDUSD gained modestly to 0.5951 but underperformed amid New Zealand election uncertainty.
• USDCAD slipped to 1.3855 as firmer oil supported the loonie, and USDCHF edged down to 0.8042 as the franc benefited from mild safe‑haven demand on geopolitical concerns.

Commodities:

• Gold held near $4,600 per ounce, on track for its biggest monthly gain since 1999. The metal has been supported by the US Treasury's surprise ramp-up in long-dated bond buybacks, which revived the debasement trade and weighed on the dollar. Gold and Bitcoin ETFs together attracted a record $7 billion in inflows over the past five trading days.
• Oil prices edged higher on Thursday, with WTI trading above $85 per barrel, paring recent declines. Alberta projected a surprise C$2 billion budget surplus driven by the war-related oil price spike. Iran–Oman diplomatic discussions around the Strait of Hormuz were also in focus, with Qatar's foreign ministry confirming talks on a joint mine-clearing project.
• Copper remains elevated, with the LME backwardation structure — spot trading as much as $543 per ton above three-month contracts at its peak — reflecting near-term supply tightness, though the squeeze has eased somewhat after significant deliveries to the LME by traders including Trafigura.

Fixed income:

• US Treasury yields continued to drift higher on Thursday, with the 10-year yield rising ~2–3 basis points to 4.674% and the 30-year yield reaching 5.191%, as markets positioned for a potentially hawkish Warsh speech. The daily range on the 10-year was less than 4 basis points, reflecting a wait-and-see tone ahead of Jackson Hole.
• The Treasury's $44 billion 7-year note auction on Thursday drew a yield of 4.512% — the highest since December 2024 — and cleared in line with the when-issued yield, indicating demand met expectations. The prior day's $70 billion 5-year auction tailed slightly, extending a streak of ten consecutive weak results in that tenor.
• JGB markets are under pressure ahead of a 2-year auction on Friday, with 2-year yields near cyclical highs. The Tokyo CPI print was broadly in line with expectations, and traders are expected to look through it and focus on the auction result, with bid-to-cover ratios this year ranging widely from 3.32 to 5.24.

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