Asia Market Quick Take – 21 May, 2026

Key points:

• Macro: Optimism over US Iran peace deal as Trump says talks in final stages
• Equities: Nvidia earnings beat, issues strong forecast but shares down 1.4%
• FX: USD rose slightly; NZD, AUD and SEK underperform modestly
• Commodities: WTI falls 5.7% below $100 while gold gained 1.4%
• Fixed income: Japan’s 30-year JGB yield fell, snapping a three-day rise

------------------------------------------------------------------

Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.

Macro:

• Optimism over a nearing US–Iran peace deal is easing inflation and rate-hike fears, as Trump said talks are in their final stages and the Strait of Hormuz may soon reopen, pushing oil prices lower.
• Fed minutes still flagged a possible rate hike this year if inflation stays above 2%, leaving markets divided on whether the Fed will move by December.
• Australia’s composite PMI fell to 47.8 in May from 50.4, signaling renewed contraction as both services and manufacturing weakened amid the Middle East conflict. New orders dropped at the fastest pace since September 2021, and employment fell for the first time in 18 months, with the sharpest job losses in nearly six years. Input costs rose sharply on higher fuel, raw materials, and transport, while business confidence hit a record low on rising costs, rate-hike risks, and tough market conditions.
• The average US 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose 10 bps to 6.56% in the week ending May 15, 2026, the highest in seven weeks, per the MBA. Rates climbed for a fourth straight week on higher Treasury yields amid inflation and debt concerns. Total mortgage applications fell 2.3%, with purchase applications down 4.1% and refis down 0.1%, pushing overall activity to a five-week low.
• Japan's April exports rose 14.8% year-over-year, beating the estimated 9.2% increase, with exports to the US up 9.5% and exports to the EU rising 26.9%.

Equities: 

• US - US equity markets rallied on Wednesday as oil prices declined on optimism over a potential US-Iran deal. The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to 7,432.97, the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.3%. Consumer discretionary stocks led the advance, with travel stocks such as Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line gaining on reduced geopolitical tensions. Homebuilders rose as Toll Brothers reported better-than-expected results. In after-hours trading, Nvidia delivered a sales forecast that drew a lukewarm reaction from investors despite continued surge in data center revenue, with the stock down 1.4% in extended trading. Intuit shares sank 11% after hours following third-quarter results and an announcement of 17% workforce cuts.
• EU - European equity markets advanced for a third consecutive day on Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.5%, or 8.95 points, to 620.29, marking the biggest move since rising 2.2% on May 6. ASML Holding contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.7%. The FTSE 100 climbed 1%, or 101.79 points, to 10,432.34, reaching the highest closing level since May 6, with HSBC Holdings contributing the most to the index gain. Germany's DAX rose 1.4%, or 336.59 points, to 24,737.24, with Infineon Technologies having the largest increase at 5.1%. France's CAC Index rose 2.2% to 8,160.70. Banks stocks led the advance across 17 of 20 sectors.
• Asia - Asian equity markets fell for a fourth straight session on Thursday, their longest losing streak in nearly two months, as inflation concerns led to a selloff. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.8%, with TSMC and Softbank among the biggest drags. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.6% to 25,651.12, dropping to the lowest closing level since April 2, with AIA Group contributing the most to the decline. Japan's benchmark index dropped 1.5%, the most since the beginning of April. South Korea's Kospi fell for a second consecutive session, closing down before rising 4.1% to 7,505.99 in early Thursday trading. Singapore's Straits Times Index gained 1.5%, or 75.59 points, to finish at 5,072.34 on May 19, with City Developments leading the gainers. SingTel, Singapore’s largest telecoms operator, posted FY net profit of S$5.61b ($4.4b) boosted by Bharti Airtel stake-sale gains; profit rose 40% y/y, with underlying earnings up 21%. Shanghai Top Numerical shares jumped as much as 47% during their Hong Kong debut on Wednesday.

Earnings this week:

• Thursday — NetEase; Singtel; NIO; Walmart; Deere; Take-Two Interactive; Workday

FX:

• Overnight G10 FX moves were still very small, but the relatively larger shifts were in the antipodeans and the SEK. The USD was broadly steady to slightly firmer as optimism over a potential US–Iran deal weighed on oil and supported risk sentiment.
• NZDUSD slipped to 0.5862, making the kiwi the weakest G10 currency versus the dollar as it gave back part of Wednesday’s risk‑on gain.
• AUDUSD softened to 0.7146, pressured by weak PMI data and ahead of Australia’s April jobs release.
• USDSEK rose to 9.3436 and EURSEK to 10.8621, leaving SEK notably weaker on the crosses, even if the absolute moves remained modest.
• EURUSD was flat at 1.1625, GBPUSD eased only slightly to 1.3431, USDJPY was steady at 158.89.
• The yuan advanced both onshore and offshore for a second day this week, with USDCNH falling 0.2% to 6.8016.

Commodities:

• US crude oil prices dropped $5.89 a barrel to $98.26 after three tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump said the US and Iran are in the final stages of negotiations for a peace deal, with futures now 13% off their recent highs.
• US crude inventories, including strategic reserves, plunged by a record 17.8 million barrels last week as soaring exports started to erode domestic supply cushions, bringing crude inventories to the lowest levels in nearly a year.
• Gold was little changed, with bullion near $4,540 an ounce in early trading after a 1.4% gain, as optimism about efforts to resolve the Middle East conflict tempered expectations of interest rate rises, while President Donald Trump said the US is in the “final stages” with Iran.

Fixed income:

• US Treasury yields declined across the curve, with the 10-year yield down 2.5 basis points to 4.64% and the 30-year yield falling 0.066 percentage point to 5.114%, snapping a three-day streak of rising yields.
• The US Treasury sold $16 billion in 20-year bonds at a yield of 5.122%, matching its when-issued yield at the bidding deadline, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.55, below the previous auction's 2.68 ratio.
• Japan’s 30-year JGB yield drops 8.5 bps to 4.015% in early Tokyo trade.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.

This content is marketing content and should not be considered investment advice. Trading financial instruments carries risks and historic performance is not a guarantee for future performance.
The instrument(s) mentioned in this content may be issued by a partner, from which Saxo receives promotion, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo receives compensation from these partnerships, all content is conducted with the intention of providing clients with valuable options and information.