Asia Market Quick Take – 08 July, 2026

Asia Market Quick Take – 08 July, 2026 

Key points:  

• Macro: US launches retaliation strikes on Iran 
• Equities: Chip names fell despite Samsung’s record quarterly profit 
• FX: USD broadly firmer on Iran strikes and higher oil 
• Commodities: Oil surges on US–Iran escalation; gold slides despite continued PBOC buying 
• Fixed income: US yields climb on oil and AI capex; strong 3-year auction 

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not indicate future performance.  

 Macro:  

• US–Iran tensions escalated as the US launched new airstrikes on Iranian weapon sites, air defenses, and coastal targets in response to attacks on three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi tanker, near the Strait of Hormuz, while the Treasury revoked Iran’s oil export waiver, marking the sharpest US–Iran escalation since their memorandum of understanding less than three weeks ago.
• The US May trade deficit widened 42.2% month-on-month to $77.6 billion, the largest since March 2025, as exports fell 3.2% and imports rose 3.3%. The print came in slightly better than the $78.4 billion consensus estimate.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow revised up. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its Q2 US GDP growth estimate up to 1.36% from 1.19% previously, following the May trade data release. The estimate remains well below the Bloomberg consensus of 2.47%.
• The RBNZ is due to deliver its rate decision today, with markets pricing a high likelihood of a hike. Westpac estimates a 90% probability the NZD weakens following the decision.
• Japan’s current account surplus rose to JPY 3,968.3 billion in May 2026 from JPY 3,320.5 billion a year earlier, but below the JPY 4,121 billion forecast. The goods account shifted to a tiny surplus as exports outpaced imports, primary income rose slightly, secondary income deficits narrowed, but the services account moved into a small deficit from a previous surplus.
• US one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.7% in June 2026 and three-year expectations to 3.3%, while the five-year outlook stayed at 3.0%. Gas price expectations fell to 1.5%. Job security perceptions improved, households felt financially better off than a year ago but more expect tighter credit ahead.

Equities:  

• US — On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,503.85, the Nasdaq 100 declined 1.8%, and the Dow Jones shed 0.3% to 52,925.15, as a broad chipmaker selloff rattled markets following Samsung's record but underwhelming earnings. Intel fell 9.7% and AMD dropped 6.5%, leading index declines. Caterpillar and Deere fell 5.3% and 6.3% respectively on a machinery momentum unwind. SpaceX debuted in the Nasdaq 100 but fell 5.3%. Fiserv gained 1.8% on reports that US banks are exploring a deal for its debit network. After hours, Kura Sushi slid 8.8% after cutting its full-year sales forecast. Demand for Amazon’s latest $25 billion bond sale was solid but far below its AI-fuelled blockbuster deal in March. SK Hynix’s planned $28 billion US listing is heavily oversubscribed. Meta launched a new image-generation AI model. Microsoft is increasingly using its own AI models in Office products to cut costs.
• EU — European equities fell for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with the Stoxx 600 down 0.6% to 646.29, the DAX falling 1.4% to 25,465.25, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declining 1.2% to 6,319.86. Technology was the worst-performing sector, down 3.6%, with ASML dropping 7.3% and Soitec falling 17.1%. Siemens Energy shed 8.9%. The FTSE 100 bucked the trend, rising 0.1%, led by Shell, which gained 3.4% on higher oil prices. The SMI rose 0.4%, led by Roche and Givaudan. 
• Asia — Asian markets fell sharply on Tuesday, led by South Korea's Kospi, which tumbled 4.9% as Samsung Electronics dropped as much as 11% and SK Hynix also sold off heavily following Samsung's record but disappointing-to-investors quarterly results. The Korea Exchange briefly triggered a circuit breaker on program selling. The Hang Seng Index fell 0.5% to 23,496.89, with Kuaishou Technology the largest drag, declining 12% after Tencent sold a $1.5 billion stake and ceased to be a substantial shareholder. The CSI 300 declined 1%. The Straits Times Index was a notable outperformer, rising 1.6% to 5,342.24, its biggest gain since April 1, led by OCBC, which rose 3.3%. Asian markets are poised to open lower again this morning following the US military's fresh strikes on Iran overnight and the continued chip selloff.

Earnings this week: 

• Tuesday – Saratoga Investment, Penguin Solutions 
• Wednesday – Levi's, Azz 
• Thursday – Pepsico, Byrna, WD-40 
• Friday – Delta Airlines 

Key Event this week: 

• Friday - SK Hynix ADR listing 

FX:

• USD traded generally firmer overnight as US military strikes on Iran, including moves to block Iranian oil exports, pushed oil prices sharply higher, reignited inflation concerns, and lifted US Treasury yields. 
• EURUSD slipped to 1.1400 as geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz undermined the euro’s bullish case, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3350, breaking a multi-session uptrend amid a risk-off tone. 
• AUDUSD edged down to 0.6920 and NZDUSD was slightly softer at 0.5680 ahead of the RBNZ decision. 
• USDJPY nudged higher above 162, supported by firmer US yields and higher oil, with BOJ comments that rate hikes could slow growth tempering any yen support despite discussion of possible changes to policy wording. 
• USDCHF, USDNOK, and USDSEK all moved marginally higher, though NOK may ultimately draw support from surging oil given Norway’s energy exposure, and USDCAD held essentially flat at 1.4200. Overall, the price action was contained, but the renewed Middle East tensions and inflation worries are keeping risk sentiment fragile into the Asian open.

Commodities: 

• WTI crude jumped 2.9% to above $72 a barrel after fresh US airstrikes on Iran and the revocation of Iran’s oil sales waiver, following attacks on a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting global inflation concerns. 
• Gold slumped up to 1.8% to below $4,120 an ounce as the dollar, oil, and bond yields rose together, extending its decline to a second session and reinforcing views that the three-year bull run from the January peak near $5,600 may be over, despite the PBOC’s largest monthly gold purchase since October 2023 and a 20‑month buying streak, set against roughly $18 billion of ETF outflows. 
• LME copper fell $38 to $13,365.50 per ton as renewed rate and inflation fears hit sentiment, with speculative net longs at a three‑month low and long‑only positions at their weakest in more than three years.

Fixed income:  

• US Treasury yields moved higher across the curve on Tuesday, with the 10-year up 7 bps to 4.541% and the 30-year up 6.1 bps to 5.047%, driven by higher oil prices and concerns over AI-related capex, while futures fell further after US strikes on Iran, implying roughly another 3 bps rise at the cash open. 
• The US Treasury's$58 billion 3-year auction tailed through, clearing at 4.179% versus a 4.185% when-issued, with primary dealers taking a record-low 7.7% and indirect bidders securing a record share, underscoring strong real-money demand; a $39 billion 10-year reopening follows today. 
• Markets are repricing inflation risk after the Iran oil waiver revocation, modestly increasing odds of Fed hikes in September and October, with one-year inflation swaps backing up and the curve steepening as the front end remains anchored by policy expectations while the long end bears the brunt of structural supply pressures.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.  

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