Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of FX Strategy
Summary: Focus returns to macro this week with US core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on the radar. While a hot print is likely to again question the last mile of the disinflation train, there is little scope for markets to price in any additional hawkishness data or comments. Reaffirmation of disinflation in Eurozone or Japan could however bring the focus back to competitive pivots. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be on watch with some banks calling for additional rate hikes, but long positioning in NZD is stretched.
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