USD pushing through more lines in the sand
Head of FX Strategy
The USD rally continues to grind away today, taking EURUSD well away from the last local Fibonacci retracement level of note (the 1.1937 area, near the day high), through the 200-day moving average in GBPUSD, and even attacking the big 1.3500 level, down through 0.7500 in AUDUSD and 0.7000 in NZDUSD.
The last major holdout for the moment is USDJPY, where the 110.00 level is not under fire yet, perhaps due to nerves linked to President Trump’s decision on Iran later today. The most compelling scenario, possibly, for USD bulls is one in which Trump says something along the lines that “we are making tremendous progress” but delays a further decision for now which triggers a bit of risk-on and a weaker US Treasury market, driving higher US yields and taking USDJPY back higher as well.
On the flip-side, a risk-unfriendly announcement is more likely to continue to aggravate the emerging market sell-off, as EM look to be a lose/lose either way if either a) yields rise or b) risk appetite drops.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook Q2 2022: The End Game has arrived
- Shocks from covid and the war in Ukraine have forced the global financial and political world to change, but what will the end game be?
Energy crisis could turn energy stocks into secular winnerWith long-term expected returns for the global energy sector close to 10%, we look at 40 stocks that could be set to cash in.
The great EUR recovery and the difficulty of trading itIf the terrible fog of war hopefully lifts soon, the conditions are promising for the euro to reprice significantly higher.
Tight commodity markets – turbocharged by war and sanctionsWith supply already tight, commodities keep powering on. But will it last for yet another quarter?
Between a rock and a hard placeGeopolitical concerns will add upward price pressures and fears of slower growth, while volatility will remain elevated.
The Great ErosionInflation is everywhere and central banks try to combat it. But will they get it under control in time?
Australian investing: Six considerations amid triple Rs: rising rates, record inflation and likely recessionWhile global financial markets are struggling in an uncertain world, the commodity-heavy Australian ASX index is poised to keep a positive momentum.
Cybersecurity – the rush to catch up with realityWith the invasion of Ukraine, governments and private companies are rushing to reinforce their cyber defenses.