Technical Update - Bullish trends in JPY pairs are getting more and more ripe for corrections. USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY Technical Update - Bullish trends in JPY pairs are getting more and more ripe for corrections. USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY Technical Update - Bullish trends in JPY pairs are getting more and more ripe for corrections. USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY

Technical Update - Bullish trends in JPY pairs are getting more and more ripe for corrections. USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY & AUDJPY

Forex 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Uptrends in JPY pairs are quite stretched and are ripe for corrections. Corrections that are likely to be limited however, with the medium-term trends pointing to higher levels
USDJPY key resistance at 145.30. Keep an eye on rising trendline
EURJPY rejected at 158. RSI divergence warning about a correction
GBPJPY. RSI divergence warning about a correction but buyers keep pushing GBPJPY higher. For how long?
AUDJPY correction seems to be unfolding. Key support at 95.15


USDJPY a correction seems increasingly likely to unfold, short-term. However, resistance at around 145.30 could be tested before a correction is unfolding. A close above 145.30 could result in the uptrend extending to 146.60 before a correction which is the 0.786 retracement – see weekly chart.

If USDJPY breaks below lower rising trendline, key support at 142.25. A close below 142.25 could lead to a larger correction/sell-off down to 139.18 (0.382 retracement) but could dip down to strong support at around 138.80

Weekly chart suggests this is merely just going to be a correction and not a trend change. Weekly RSI is positive without divergence indicating likely new higher USDJPY levels and no strong resistance . A move to the 0.786 retracement at 146.60 should be seen.
However, medium- to longer term 2022 peak just below 152 could be challenged

Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

EURJPY seems to be rejected at 158 and is about to unfold a correction. RSI divergence indicates a weakening of the uptrend short-term further adding to the correction scenario.

A correction down to support at around 154.40 could be seen but a dip down to the lower rising trendline should be expected.
If EURJPY closes below 154.40 a sell-off down to 0.618 retracement at 152.20 could be seen.

For EURJPY to extend the uptrend a closed above 158 is needed supported by RSI closing above its falling trendline

Medium- to longer term EURJPY is in an uptrend with no strong resistance until 169-170.
Weekly RSI showing no divergence supporting higher EURJPY levels. That uptrend will. However be in jeopardy if EURJPY drops to close below strong support at around 150.75

GBPJPY. RSI divergence is warning of a correction. A correction down to test lower rising trendline. If closing below it could drop to strong support at around 174.20.

Short-term support at 179.90 is key. A close below would confirm correction is unfolding.
However, a top and reversal indicator is not yet in place and GBPJPY could continue higher before a correction occurs. A daily close above 184.00 is likely to extend the uptrend short-term before a correction.

The medium-term uptrend is strong without RSI divergence suggesting a correction is likely to be limited. There is room up to resistance at around 188-189.

AUDJPY correction is unfolding and can slide down to the 0.382 retracement at around 93.23. The correction scenario is confirmed if AUDJPY is closing below 95.15. A correction could then be seen down to the lower rising trendline and support at around 93.20

However, with no daily RSI divergence uptrend is likely to resume and AUDJPY could have another go at the strong resistnace at around 97.50.
A close above 97.70 could lead to the medium-term uptrend to be extended to 103-104 resistance area (back from 2013 and 2008)

To reverse the uptrend a close below 172.50 is needed.

Latest Market Insights


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.