Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The week to September 18 saw a dramatic reversal in funds' USD outlook with speculators piling back into long dollar positions. In bonds, leveraged funds continue to look for higher US yields.
Saxo Bank publishes two weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Forex report for the week ending September 18, click here.
To download your copy of the Commitment of Traders: Financials report for the week ending September 18, click here.
Three weeks of dollar long-liquidation was reversed in the week to September 18 when speculators bought $4 billion against nine IMM currency futures. The buying which occurred just days before the dollar dropped to a 10-week low and took the gross dollar long to an almost 20-month high at $24.2 billion.