FX Update: What does a no landing scenario look like? FX Update: What does a no landing scenario look like? FX Update: What does a no landing scenario look like?

FX Update: What does a no landing scenario look like?

Forex
John Hardy

Head of FX Strategy

Summary:  The US dollar’s fortunes have revived since last week’s initially dovish read of the FOMC as the ECB and BoE surprised dovish, but more importantly on rising concerns that there may be “no landing” rather than a soft landing for the US economy and the global economy. That scenario could support a significant USD extension higher. Such a scenario might also dampen any impact for the JPY of the theoretically less dovish BoJ governorship nominee Ueda now in the spotlight.


Today's Saxo Market Call podcast
Today's Market Quick Take from the Saxo Strategy Team

FX Trading focus: US yields breaking higher, boosting USD prospects, especially if “No landing” scenario develops. BoJ nomination fuss boosts yen, but hostile backdrop for JPY here.

The entire US yield curve continues to lift, with the latest uplift in the wake of a weak 30-year T-bond auction yesterday in the US, which saw some of the weakest bidding metrics in about a year. The 10-year yield today above 3.70% has broken to a new 5-week high, if still short of the major pivot high of 3.90% at the end of last year. We are also pushing on the highs for the cycle for the terminal Fed funds rate (currently just above 5.15% priced by the summer). And yet, while yields have marched higher in recent days, there is little drama or cyclical reassessment here: we are merely seeing the market mark its expectations incrementally higher for mid-year and only slightly delaying the anticipated eventual Fed rate cuts to come as soon as the end of this year, but more decisively next year. Evidence of that is something like the Dec '23 EuroDollar vs. Dec' 24 EuroDollar yield spread - still showing the latter at 145 bps lower yield than the former, a spread first reached almost a month ago. A proper change in the forward curve based on pricing a “no landing” scenario is something to watch out for in coming days and weeks. But what does that look like?

It probably looks something like the Fed moving to 5.25-5.50% or even 25 or 50 bps above that by later this year as the economy reheats and we see unprecedented tightness in the US labour market, with other data confirming fresh strength (US housing and construction is already picking up again) and even inflation and wages refusing to settle lower by late spring. With reheating data, the market will have to push those expected Fed cuts much farther over the horizon and re-asses whether the heavily inverted yield curve is justified – perhaps shocking the 10-year Treasury yield, for example, closer to par with 2-year rates, even as the latter rise as well – a bear steepener! That would likely in turn pressure global risk sentiment due to the vicious tightening of financial conditions as the disinflationary soft landing scenario is priced out. And it would keep the US dollar on the comeback trail for a major retracement of its sell-off from the top. Yields and incoming data are the key. And by incoming data, I am largely ignoring any surprise potential from the US January CPI next Tuesday, which could surprise on the downside due to a change in the calculation methodology. The best tell that market concern for a “no landing” scenario is rising would be a soft-ish CPI data point next Tuesday that is completely ignored by the treasury market.

Chart: USDJPY
USDJPY volatility has picked up today on an difficult-to-navigate set of circumstances. First, it emerged this morning in Europe that Japan’s PM Kishida will nominate Kazuo Ueda, a candidate not on any list of likely candidates before today, to replace Kuroda at the helm of the BoJ on his exit in early April. New outfits and researchers are busy plumbing all of Ueda’s prior statements for clues, but the academic and former BoJ board member looks a bit hard to pin down for any obvious direction from here other than that he is an experienced hand and certainly no radical, even if the lifting of the obviously dovish Amamiya (who declined the offer for a nomination) gave the JPY an initial boost today. Meanwhile, normally painfully negative headwinds for the JPY are building in the background, including the rise in yields discussed above (and a “no landing” scenario would require a massive adjustment in BoJ policy to support the JPY) and a jump in oil prices on Putin’s belligerent move today in announcing a cut in production by a half million barrels per day. Uncertainty rides high for now for JPY traders, but for USDJPY, I suspect the soft side is to the upside as long as US yields are setting the tone higher.

Source: Saxo Group

AUD fails to firm much despite inflation/wage forecast boost from RBA expectations. Short Australian yields jumped as the RBA adjusted its inflation expectation significantly higher overnight, to 6.25% for its core “trimmed mean” measure for end-June of this year from 5.5% previously, but then is forecast to ease to 4.25% by the end of the year. Wages are expected to peak at 4.25% this year. Alas, with risk sentiment in the dumps today, the AUD is left out in the cold, with the key industrial commodities not supporting either.

Table: FX Board of G10 and CNH trend evolution and strength.
A huge momentum shift in the SEK to the upside, now watching for a more determined follow through higher – a bit out of fitting with the current risk-off, but the Riksbank did buy a lot of respect at its meeting yesterday, specifically going after currency speculation. The NOK is finding some support after its own weakness with the recent ramp in oil prices and after a hot CPI print out of Norway this morning (Jan. core at 6.4% YoY vs. 6.0% expected and 5.8% in Dec.) The US dollar needs another leg higher to take into a full broad up-trend.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Table: FX Board Trend Scoreboard for individual pairs.
EURGBP is continuing to pressure lower, beginning to look like a proper reversal of the upside breakout attempt, if perhaps needing a close below 0.8800 to seal the deal. A reasonable EURSEK downtrend is in our sights after yesterday’s watershed Riksbank meeting. Note USDCNH rolling over to positive today if it closes near the current level – the first attempt to make a positive trending move, according to our indicator, in just over 10 weeks. JPY crosses also bear watching on the BoJ transition developments.

Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group

Upcoming Economic Calendar Highlights

  • 1330 – Canada Jan. Net Change in Employment / Unemployment Rate
  • 1400 – UK Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill to speak
  • 1400 – ECB’s Schnabel in live Q&A on Twitter
  • 1500 – US Feb. Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment
  • 1730 – US Fed’s Waller (Voter) to speak at Crypto conference
  • 2100 – US Fed’s Harker (Voter 2023) to speak

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.