The G-10 rundown
USD – the US dollar is lower against EM currencies, which are enjoying a snapback rally on the bounce in risk appetite overnight, but is still neutral within the G10 – watching for the next important US data tomorrow (ISM Non-manufacturing and Friday’s jobs data) but also the Democratic primary results through the huge March 3 Super Tuesday, which gets us well over a third of the nation having voted in the primaries.
EUR – the EURUSD supermajor has shied back away from the 1.1000 level after the recent approach, and interesting to note that Friday’s ugly risk off correlated with a spike higher in EUR – suggesting that the currency may do well in carry-trade unwinding situations/risk off.
JPY – the yen serving its purpose as the highest beta currency to both risk appetite and safe haven yields as USDJPY slips back above 109.00 after bouncing off the 200-day moving average area below 108.50.
GBP – under heavy pressure as we enter the post-Brexit era on the uncertainty of the shape of the eventual EU trade deal and the delays this will mean for major manufacturers.
CHF – the franc rather modestly offered on the strong resurgence in risk appetite – rather lower beta to the ups and downs in risk sentiment swings than is the case for the JPY.
AUD – the RBA no cut shores up the downside risk in a heavily oversold currency, but a lot of heavy lifting needed to get our hopes up for the beleaguered Aussie…
CAD – USDCAD has more or less explored the full extent of the medium term range to the upside into 1.3300+, and oil prices and the Canadian and US economic outlooks need to show sustained promise for the pair to avoid slipping higher still.
NZD – kiwi traders are watching for the Q4 jobs and wages data tonight for relative strength trades like AUDNZD, which tried to turn the corner on the RBA meeting overnight.
SEK – a surprisingly strong Swedish PMI survey yesterday offers modest support, but EURSEK needs to plunge well back through the 9.60-65 area pivot zone to prove that it has turned the corner.
NOK – the trading ranges expanding in EURNOK recently and the consolidation back lower looks impressive on the day until we have a look at how far the squeeze higher has taken the pair – to its highest close ever. NOK likely to continue trading in correlation with oil prices here.
Today’s Economic Calendar Highlights (all times GMT)
- 1500 – US Dec. Factory Orders
- 2145 – New Zealand Q4 Unemployment Rate / Employment Change / Wages
- 0130 – Australia RBA Governor Lowe to Speak