Only three industry groups were down on the 30 September with most groups gaining more than 0.5%. Due to the stimulus talks impacting price action in US equities it is difficult to isolate the market’s reaction function of the first US presidential debate across the different industry groups. Crude oil was down significantly ahead of the debate and thus negatively impacted energy stocks the following day. A general observation from those days of price action is that the market cares more about stimulus than the US presidential debates, or dare one say, maybe equities do not care much about who is US president.
|S&P 500 Industry Group||Return 1D||Return 5YR|
|Health Care Equipment & Services||2.24||100.4|
|Automobiles & Components||1.48||-4.5|
|Food & Staples Retailing||1.44||62.5|
|Technology Hardware & Equipment||1.23||256.0|
|Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, Life Sciences||1.2||52.1|
|Household & Personal Products||1.18||99.7|
|Food, Beverage & Tobacco||1.14||36.0|
|Software & Services||0.89||218.0|
|Consumer Durables & Apparel||0.57||40.0|
|Commercial Professional Services||0.23||94.7|
|Media & Entertainment||0.03||74.7|
Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group
Return 1D is the return on the first trading day following the first US presidential debate
As the first day of trading after the debate did not provide much colour on the individual industry groups we are not updating our US election scenarios on equities depending on the outcome. These estimates are also presented in our Q4 Outlook and are based on campaign policy statements and our best guesses on how the market could react after the US election. With the US president tested positive for Covid-19 it is not even given that the next scheduled US presidential debate on 15 October will go ahead. However, if changes in polls or any future debates changes our views, we will update our views.