If the world is moving into a world of sustained higher inflation rate and nominal yields suddenly reflects that then global equity valuations will be reset to a lower level causing a substantial drawdown in equities. Our view remains that the themes investors should be overweight are mega caps, cyber security, semiconductors, logistics, India, and the commodity sector. Rising inflation and interest rates will also penalize companies with high debt leverage and low profit margins.
The stunning turnaround of Sony
Today’s price action in Sony is sending the shares closer to close the drawdown from the dot-com era with the shares up 1,641% in total return terms since the lows in October 2012 or 37.4% annualized. This is a remarkable turn of events for the Japanese technology company which was predicted to hit the dust bin. Sony is now only 5.2% from making a new all-time high in total return terms ending the 21-year drawdown that started at the peak of the dot-com bubble.
Sony released their recent earnings last week increasing their FY guidance for operating income to JPY 1.04trn up from previously JPY 980bn driven by strong performance across of business lines. According to the company itself, the sprawling businesses across music, TV, entertainment, and cameras have helped the company weather the pandemic.
The company has benefited from increasing operating margin with the EBITDA margin at 17% over the past 12 months up from 12.8% in FY18 (ending 31 March 2018). Based on forecasts for this year’s free cash flows of JPY 716bn the company is valued at 3.9% free cash flow yield which makes the technology company valued on par with the sector. Given the low growth outlook from analysts much of the continued performance has to come from a better mix of higher margin businesses. Apple for example is valued at 4.3% free cash flow yield and has arguably a more robust and recurring business model than Sony. The bull case for Sony is the growing share of revenue and profits coming from its Game & Network Services segment (PS5 ecosystem) which will help the company grow cash flows.