Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
S&P 500 jumped on the opening currently testing the 0.618 retracement at 3,879. However, key resistance is at 3,912. A close above could fuel a rally to around 4,100.
If S&P 500 slides back below 55 SMA and below 3,800 thereby closing the gap created at the open, selling pressure is likely to accelerate
RSI is still showing negative sentiment and must close above 60 to switch to positive. The divergence on RSI remains until RSI closes above 60. However, if RSI closes below its rising trendline it indicates bear trend to resume.
US500 cfd chart below S&P 500 chart
Nasdaq 100 has bounced from 0.786 retracement and the upper falling trendline, gapping higher at the open. Trend is still down however and will remain bearish until Nasdaq 100 closes above 11,682.
If the Index closes above 11,682 it will have confirmed Double bottom like pattern. With a potential target of 1.618 to 2.00 projection of the pattern i.e., 12,300 – 12,731.
If Nasdaq 100 fails to close above 11,682 and instead slides back closing the gap from the open and RSI closes below its rising trendline Nasdaq 100 is likely to test October lows.
USNAS100 cfd chart below Nasdaq 100 chart for levels
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.