Saxo Strats’ 2022 World Cup Predictions: Final Update
Head of Equity Strategy
Summary: The FIFA 2022 World Cup is coming closer to an end with the first two quarter finals set to be played tomorrow. Elo ratings and numbers overall mean less at this stage as randomness and luck will begin to play a bigger role in the outcomes. As a result, we are publishing the final set of predictions. The Netherlands is still the model's top favourite and Portugal has seen the biggest jump in win probability as Morocco beat Spain making it easier, in theory, for Portugal to advance to the semi finals.
Randomness, luck, and close calls
The FIFA 2022 World Cup starts the quarter finals tomorrow with two matches (Croatia vs Brazil at 1600 CET and Netherlands vs Argentina at 2000 CET). We are now entering the phase of the tournament in which Elo ranking means less and the peculiarities of the game begin. As a result we are publishing our final predictions of tournament. The Netherlands is still the model’s favourite and by late tomorrow night we will know whether the model’s favourite from the beginning can go all the way by beating Messi’s Argentina or the show stops. Portugal is the biggest gainer in terms of win probability as Morocco miraculously beat Spain as Portugal by far is the biggest favourite in that quarter final measured over 10,000 simulations. But remember on the actual game day anything can happen. It is football after all and luck plays a big role in outcomes in life and football.
After Netherlands and Portugal the model favours Argentina, Brazil and Croatia. France and England despite wonderful plays (the model cannot see that) are not favourites which have many of our colleagues and clients wondering what is wrong with model. If we were to adjust the model after its predictions we would probably shrink the win probabilities closer to each other reflecting how close it is from now on, but we are faithful to the model but also to commit to provide conviction. As a result, come on Netherlands!
The lessons using monte carlo simulations and adjusted Elo ratings are as follow. Our model’s lower win probability on Belgium compared to bookmakers was its biggest thing it got right where as its better than expected prospects for Denmark was its worst prediction. Its win probability prediction on Portugal which was almost twice consensus at the beginning of the tournament has also turned out to be correct. Elo ratings have mostly been reflective the true relative strength in this tournament based on the teams that have reached the quarter finals, but from now on everything can happen and numbers will mean nothing. So enjoy the remaining games everyone.
All our FIFA 2022 World Cup predictions since the beginning of the tournament can be accessed below:
Latest Market Insights
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.