Earnings in the first quarter of this year were on the weak side and we may not see any significant difference this time round. However, we do see a pick-up in credit growth, something that is often followed by some slight growth in earnings. What tends to happen is that by the second and third quarters of a given year we may see the market starting to recover as a result of increased credit conditions. This pattern could be repeated again this year.
When looking at the Chinese market a good point of departure is to explore the 2019 earnings estimate for the MSCI China Index – growth of approximately 14%. For the CSI 300, earnings growth is approximately 17%. To be frank, we’re not going to see such numbers anywhere in the rest of world.