Outrageous Predictions
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Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
On 7 August 2026, the US government announced $3 billion of new critical-minerals and battery projects, explicitly linking the investment to economic security, defence and reducing reliance on foreign supply chains.
Washington is increasingly treating rare earths, lithium, scandium and other strategic materials as national-security assets, with government funding, supply agreements, price support and even direct equity stakes being used to build non-China supply chains.
For investors, the opportunity now sits across three areas:One of the clearest US rare-earth plays. Mountain Pass gives MP domestic mining exposure, while its push into processing and magnets makes it strategically important to Washington.
Watch: magnet production, government contracts and downstream expansion.
Arguably the most important non-China rare-earth producer outside the US. Lynas already has operating scale and has deepened its strategic relationship with Washington through Pentagon-backed supply arrangements.
Watch: US contracts, production growth and rare-earth pricing.
Offers exposure to both uranium and rare earths, two supply chains receiving growing Western policy support.
Watch: rare-earth separation capacity, uranium prices and further government support.
A higher-risk development story centred on scandium, which is used in aerospace, defence and advanced manufacturing. US financing support has increased the strategic relevance of its Australian project.
Watch: project financing, construction milestones and offtake agreements.
Thacker Pass has become an important part of the US effort to secure domestic lithium supply. Government backing could help support the project through a weak lithium-price cycle.
Watch: construction progress, lithium prices and financing needs.
Not a pure critical-minerals play, but its exposure to metals including germanium gives it an increasingly strategic role as defence companies look for alternatives to Chinese supply.
Watch: long-term supply agreements and developments across its broader metals portfolio.
Interesting because the opportunity goes beyond mining into domestic magnet production. That could matter increasingly as governments focus on replacing China across the full value chain.
Watch: magnet-production ramp-up, funding and customer agreements.
This is increasingly about building an entire supply chain, not simply digging more mines.
Government support is expanding across:That creates a potential structural tailwind for companies that can deliver strategically important materials outside China.
But the risk profiles vary sharply. MP Materials and Lynas already produce at scale, while companies such as Sunrise and Lithium Americas still depend much more heavily on project execution and financing.
Strategic importance does not automatically translate into shareholder returns. Investors still need to watch:
The structural case is strengthening, but the key distinction remains between companies already producing strategic materials and those still trying to build the capacity.