Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold testing strong resistance at 1,985, expect a correction
Silver in uptrend but struggling to get the decisive break through higher
Platinum slowly building uptrend but can it keep building or will it slide back?
Copper again-again testing key support at 354.50
Gold XAUUSD only paused for a short while at the resistance at around 1,946 before shooting higher. Now testing the strong resistance at around 1,985 a correction should be expected.
Daily RSI is above 60 i.e. showing positive sentiment suggesting higher Gold levels area likely but the weekly RSI is just testing the 60 threshold indicating a correction before moving higher
If Gold is being rejected at the 1,985 resistance a correction could take it down to the support at around 1,946. However, a dip down to test the falling trendline and the 0.382 retracement at around 1,918 should not be ruled out.
Current level is also around the 0.618 retracement of the May through October down trend – see weekly chart.
Medium-term Gold has resumed its uptrend, it is back above the Cloud and seems to get a higher weekly close
Silver XAGUSD is trying to get past the 0.786 retracement at 23.11 but seems to be struggling to break above the 100 and 200 daily Moving Averages. It could also be a bit of a struggle to break back above the Cloud area (shaded area)
However, if the daily RSI is closing above the 60 threshold sentiment has switched to positive supporting the bullish picture on Silver strongly. A close above 23.78 will confirm uptrend.
An uptrend with short-term potential to 25.25 – 26.00
If Silver is sliding back below 22.35 the bearish trend is likely to resume
Platinum XPTUSD has broken above its very short-term falling trendline and seems to be building an uptrend/rising channel pattern.
Further upside could be seen towards strong resistance area 940-950 but the declining 55, 100 and 200 Moving Averages will likely put a damper on the upside potential
Copper is a re-peat of the latest update. The metal once again-again testing key support at 354.50. If closing below it could fuel a sell-off lower with no support until around 323-313
If Copper Bulls can once again manage to keep Copper above 354.50 a move to test the upper falling trendline could be seen.
On the medium-term (weekly chart) Copper has closed below its lower rising trendline thus broken bearish out of its Triangle like pattern and is in a downtrend both short- and medium-term. However, for further down trend potential a close below 354.50 is needed
Bond. Long Bond(s)
With real rates being too positive, we see three scenarios: Opportunity to lock in rates at cycle high, government overreach to keep the economy afloat or a complete reset of the economy.
Steen Jakobsen,
Chief Investment Officer
Is a bond bull market ahead? Inflation still poses a risk for investors, but the moment for increasing duration to your portfolio may be approaching towards the end of the year, when central banks might be forced to cut interest rates.
Althea Spinozzi,
Senior Fixed Income Strategist
The furious rate hike cycle has brought gains in the US dollar, but with stagflation risks in Europe and the UK and weakness in the Chinese economy, USD may have more room to run. But a strong dollar could also have repercussions for US growth, emerging markets and commodity prices.
Charu Chanana,
Market Strategist
With the cost of capital rising painfully, stagflation fears are back, illuminating the fragile state of the green transformation, while giving a tailwind to nuclear power, and threatening the growth of AI-related stocks.
Peter Garnry,
Head of Equity Strategy
With supply tightness not only in energy but all commodities, the momentum in commodity prices may continue, pressuring central banks to lower real rates. That could be a good setup for precious metals, including gold, silver and potentially platinum as well.
Ole S. Hansen,
Head of Commodity Strategy
As the pandemic showed, even the US Treasury can experience seismic shifts. With the government increasing the pace of issuing bonds to support fiscal spending, the complex Treasury market and regulatory constraints could spark a liquidity event.
Redmond Wong,
Market Strategist
The tide has turned for bonds. Given the current yields, bonds have become an attractive investment, with added benefits including lower risk than stocks, increased diversification and a steady stream of income unaffected by economic changes.
Peter Siks,
Investment Coach