Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Wheat has spiked above 0.382 retracement at 939 and key resistance at 940 a couple of times but cannot keep momentum to close above.
If Wheat manages to close above 940 and move above 950 there is short term upside potential to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1,070 in the middle of consolidation area 1,027 -1,109.
The strength indicator RSI is a bit indecisive, showing bullish sentiment but with minor divergence indicating there is risk of Wheat dropping bearish out of its rising channel pattern. Key support to look for is 872.50. A close below is likely to send Wheat to 820-810 i.e., dipping below 55 SMA. If closing below 819 bear trend is confirmed and a retest of 725 is likely.
Milling Wheat is breaking above 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and resistance at 360 confirming uptrend supported by higher RSI values. Resistance at 371.25 which is likely to be taken out for a move higher to 392-400. To reverse the uptrend a close below 344.
Soybeans could have found support around 1,349. RSI is still bearish however, and trend is currently down. Soybeans needs to close above 1,450 to reverse that.
If Soybeans closes below 1,349 there is downside risk to 1,250-1,200.
Robusta Coffee is in a corrective downtrend forming a falling wedge like pattern finding support at the 0.50 retracement at 2,135. A close below will most likely send Robusta to the 0.618 retracement at around 2,080.
A close above the upper falling trend line and above 2,195 will reverse the downtrend for likely new highs. Key resistance at around 2,300
Coffee seems to be forming a descending triangle pattern. Key support around the 0.618 retracement of the July to August uptrend. If Coffee closes below 212 Coffee could be hit by sell-off down to around 200-195 i.e., July lows. Some support around 205.
However, RSI is still bullish and a close above the falling trend line and above 227 is likely to spur a rally that will test August peak around 243.
The collapse in Cotton seems to have come to an end – at least short term. Divergence on RSI indicates exhaustion of the downtrend, and a correction is in the cards. A close above 90.55 is likely to fuel a move the 0.382 retracement at 98.15 potentially test 100 and the 55 SMA which is likely to provide some resistance.
If Cotton closes at current levels or higher is has formed a bottom and reversal pattern on the weekly chart after finding support at the 200 weekly SMA. Divergence on RSI supports the bottom and reversal scenario.
Rapeseed has broken bullish out of falling wedge pattern formed over the past couple of months. Rapeseed being above its 55 SMA has no strong resistance until around 714. 100 SMA will provide minor resistance, however.
Short-term trend is up supported by Bullish RSI. If Rapeseed closes below 611 the uptrend is likely to be reversed.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.