Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Wheat, Soybeans and Corn have been hit with massive selling the past week. All back to pre-Ukraine war levels. Oversold indicator suggest we could see a nice rebound. But selling pressure can quickly resume
Wheat is back to pre-Ukraine war level. All support levels have been taken out and Wheat is now hovering around 820 which was top of the range area it was trading a couple of months prior to the war.
Wheat can still drop further as there is no support before around 740. However, Wheat is oversold and RSI has not seen values this low since 2019. RSI has formed a falling wedge like pattern and if it breaks bullish out of this we could see a strong rebound to around 900-926.
Soybeans collapsed after the key support at 1,579 was broke last week. The price has almost moved the same length as the range Soybeans was trading March to June. Illustrated by the two arrows.
It seems to bounce from the upper support in the consolidation area 1,429-1,349. A bounce that could take Soybeans up to 200 Simple Moving Average around 1,485, possibly up to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at around 1,522
RSI is bearish and despite being oversold Soybeans can drop further. If it takes out yesterdays low we could see Soybeans below 1,400.
Corn has collapsed down to the January lows around 585. RSI showing massive oversold and a rebound is likely. A rebound that could take Corn to around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and around the 200 SMA. However, if Corn is being pushed below 580 we could see it drop to around 550.
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Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.