Technical Update - Oil breaking falling trendline, building uptrend. Gas rejected at previous peaks but higher prices are in the cards Technical Update - Oil breaking falling trendline, building uptrend. Gas rejected at previous peaks but higher prices are in the cards Technical Update - Oil breaking falling trendline, building uptrend. Gas rejected at previous peaks but higher prices are in the cards

Technical Update - Oil breaking falling trendline, building uptrend. Gas rejected at previous peaks but higher prices are in the cards

Commodities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Brent Crude oil has broken above its short-term falling trendline and seems to start reversing the down trend trading around the 0.382 retracement level at USD104.38. Next key resistance is 110.67-112.32, the latter is the 0.618 retracement of the June-August Bearish move. A close above those levels 120-125 is in the cards.
If Brent oil drops back below the falling trend line the uptrend is likely to be reversed. If closing below 98.14 it is reversed and 90 is likely to be tested. 
RSI is still below 60 and needs to close above to underline the uptrend.

Source: Saxo Group
On the weekly chart we can see that Brent Oil retraced 0.382 of the bullish trend since 2020. RSI is testing its falling trend line and a close above is an indication of Brent resuming its medium- to long-term uptrend
Source: Saxo Group

WTI Lights Sweet Crude oil that broke out of its falling trendline last week is now in a confirmed uptrend (higher highs and higher lows). However, RSI has not yet confirmed the trend by closing above 60. Resistance at around USD100.23. If buyers can lift WTI above that level the big test is can it move above 55 and 100 SMA’s. If that scenario plays out a move to 0.618 retracement at around 109.18 is likely.
If WTI closes below 91.13 the downtrend is likely to resume

Source: Saxo Group

WTI only retraced around 0.236 of the 2020 extreme low (where WTI oil went to minus 40.32) till (so far) 2022 peak. RSI is still above i.e. in positive sentiment and could test its falling trend line with in a week or so.
If WTI loses steam and closes below 85.41 a bearish move to 75.27 and even 65.25 could be seen.

Source: Saxo Group

Dutch TTF gas has peaked out a few Euros below previous peak at EUR345 – at least short-term - and has since retraced. A correction down to around 240 which is the 0.382 retracement level and a test of the short-term rising trendline is likely. However, a correction down to test the medium-term (black) rising trendline is not unlikely before uptrend quite possibly resumes.
RSI is at the time of writing below its rising lower trend line but there is no divergence indicating we could see higher price levels in coming weeks.

Source: Saxo Group

Henry Hub Gas is having trouble closing above USD10 and could be set for a correction. If breaking the steep rising trendline and drops below 8.87 a correction down to 8.23 is likely but could spike down to around 7.68-7.55 key support.
RSI is at the time of writing breaking below its rising trendline and if closing below it support the correction picture. However, there is no divergence on RSI indicating higher levels after a possible correction.

Source: Saxo Group
Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Capital Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.