COT: Subdued fund buying despite strong commodity gains COT: Subdued fund buying despite strong commodity gains COT: Subdued fund buying despite strong commodity gains

COT: Subdued fund buying despite strong commodity gains

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex, bonds and stock indices up until last Tuesday, June 1. A week that saw S&P 500 trade mostly sideways near its record high while the technology sector lost steam. Treasury yields rose ahead of jobs data with market pondering for how long the Fed can continue adding support amid rising inflation. The dollar held steady while the commodity sector recovered strongly from the May correction.


Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

The below summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities, forex and financials up until last Tuesday, June 1. A week that saw S&P 500 trade mostly sideways near its record high while the technology sector lost steam. Treasury yields rose ahead of jobs data with the market pondering for how long the Fed can continue adding support amid rising inflation. The dollar held steady while the commodity sector recovered strongly from the May correction.

Commodities

The commodity sector saw buyers return following the May correction with the Bloomberg Commodity index rising 3%. All sectors apart from precious metals and livestock recorded strong gains led by crude oil, copper, corn and coffee. In response to these developments hedge funds and large money managers increased bullish bets across 24 major commodity futures by 3% to 2,358k lots.

Given the strength of the recovery a relatively small increase that was led by crude oil (25k), gas oil (17k), natural gas (+11.7k), corn (21.9k) and sugar (12.5). Other contracts such as copper (-6.3k) and both wheat contracts (-5.7k) were sold despite recording strong price gains. Potentially a sign that investors despite being dictated by the price action to be long are feeling somewhat uncomfortable with prices at multi-year highs and breakeven yields (inflation) that has been drifting lower during the past three weeks.   

Energy: Most of last week’s commodity buying was concentrated in the energy sector, most noticeable crude oil and gas oil. OPEC’s bullish demand outlook for the second half combined with the OPEC+ groups ability to control the price, helped drive Brent above $70 while WTI reached levels last seen in 2018. In response to these developments hedge funds increased their combined crude oil net long by 25.2k lots to 649.5k, a three week high but still some 88k below the recent peak in February.

While the overall increase in both WTI and Brent was primarily driven by fresh buying, the bulk of the buying occurred in WTI. This in response to tightening US market amid increased demand for fuel and low stocks at a time where production is expected to show a much slower growth trajectory than the one we witnessed during previous cycles of rising prices.

Agriculture: Despite recovering strongly from the late May correction, only small changes were seen in soybeans and wheat. Corn received most of the attention with the 11% price spike driving a 21.8k lots increase, mostly due to short covering with potential buyers showing a degree of hesitancy as we move into the US growing season. In soft commodities, buying benefitted sugar, cocoa and coffee, and just like corn the net buying in coffee was primarily due to the short covering with buyers hesitating chasing the 7% rally seen during the week.

Metals: Gold buying ran out of steam with long accumulation slowing to just 2.9k lots, a far cry from the 61.3k lots that was net bought the previous three weeks. Having surged higher by 240 dollar since early April on a combination of technical buying and short-covering from large trend following funds, the lack of fresh buying last week could indicate that this initial demand has now been met. Also worth noting the reporting week up until last Tuesday did not take into account the US economic data related price swings that hit the market towards the end of last week. At 129k lots, the gold long remains well below the most recent 284k lots peak from March last year.

Elsewhere in the metal space, silver longs were reduced for a second week while copper selling extended to a fourth week. During this time the net long has slumped by 58% to just 27.6k, the lowest bet on rising copper prices since last June when the rally had only just started to gather momentum.

Latest: Gold trades softer in early trading following an end of week rollercoaster ride where prices first slumped on emerging profit-taking, only to bounce back on Friday following what looked like “Goldilocks” US payroll date. Gold’s so far shallow correction following the strong rally since early April potentially highlighting the risk that all is not done yet on that front. The first key downside support level that will determine the underlying strength of the market is the 200-day moving average at $1842. Focus on the dollar and whether yields can maintain their Friday drop, President Biden's spending plan and the market reaction to the G7 tax proposal.

Forex

In forex, the flows in the week to June 1 were mixed while the overall sentiment was still skewed towards additional dollar selling. The net short against ten IMM futures and the Dollar Index reached a 12-week high at $17.7 billion after speculators net sold $900 million. Despite trading softer on the week, speculators continued to buy euros (5.3k lots) with buying also seen in JPY (3k), CAD (3.9k) and CHF (1.5k), while selling reduced the sterling long by 6.5k lots.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

 

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.