COT: Speculators sold dollar and gold ahead of FOMC COT: Speculators sold dollar and gold ahead of FOMC COT: Speculators sold dollar and gold ahead of FOMC

COT: Speculators sold dollar and gold ahead of FOMC

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 20, a week leading up to the FOMC meeting, Bank of Japan intervention, a Sterling crisis and the dollar surging to levels not seen in decades. Ahead of these events speculators chose to cut their dollar long by one-third, increasing their gold short to a four year high while adding exposure in grains and crude oil

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities, bonds and stock index futures. For IMM currency futures and the VIX, we use the broader measure called non-commercial.
This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during the week to Tuesday, September 20. A week that saw financial market adjust positions ahead of the FOMC meeting on September 21. In anticipation of another 75 basis point rate hike, the market sold stocks, bonds and commodities while the dollar was bought. As it turned out, the FOMC was the starting shot to a very volatile end of week that saw heightened recession worries, Bank of Japan intervention to support the yen for the first time in 24 years, and an unfolding crisis in the UK sending the Sterling towards an all-time low.


The Bloomberg Commodity Index dropped 2.3% during the week to last Tuesday with losses seen across most sectors, the exception being grains and livestock. Selling was particularly felt across the energy sector and in precious metals. Money managers responded to these heightened growth and strong dollar concerns by cutting length in energy and softs while adding to already short positions in precious metals. The only sector continuing to see demand were grains where the speculators have now been net buyers in all but one of the last eight reporting weeks.


Money managers raised their combined crude oil net long to a seven-week high despite the recessionary clouds growing ever darker and the dollar continued to strengthen. During the reporting week when oil dropped around 3% the total net long in WTI and Brent was raised by 13.5k contracts to 355k lots. The ICE gas long meanwhile slumped by 30% to a 22-month low while in New York the ULSD (diesel) length was cut by 17% to 15.7k contracts. Despite falling by around 7% only small changes were seen in natural gas.


Gold selling accelerated last week with the net short jumping by 225% to 33k contracts to near a four-year low. This the culmination of six consecutive weeks of selling driven by a stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields as well a firm belief the FOMC will successfully manage to bring inflation under control next year. Silver saw no major net change with reductions in both long and short positions offsetting each other. The copper net short was unchanged at 4k contacts, the weakest belief in lower prices since June while platinum’s 3.5% rally supported an 82% reduction in the net short to just 2k contracts, again weakest short bet since June.


The grains sector saw continued demand with speculators having been net buyers in all but one of the past eight weeks. The increase last week was led by a 16% increase in the soymeal long to 102k contracts, a seasonal high while corn buying extended to an eight week. The wheat market which found support from renewed threats to the Ukraine grain corridor saw net buying of both Chicago and Kansas wheat. Overall however the net exposure remains close to zero with a 16k contracts CBT net short partly offsetting a 19k contracts long in KCB wheat.

Renewed selling of sugar cut the net long by 72% to 8.6k contracts, the cocoa net short extended to a fresh 3-1/2 year high while long liquidation continued in both coffee and cotton.


Ahead of the post-FOMC dollar surge to a fresh multi-year high against several major currencies, and the first intervention from the Bank of Japan to support the yen in 24 years, speculators had reduced bullish dollar bets by 35% to $13.9 billion, a six month low. The bulk of the change was driven by the biggest amount of short covering in the euro since March 2020, a change that flipped the position back to a long of 33k lots or €4.2 billion equivalent, up from a €6 billion short three weeks ago.

The net short in sterling was reduced by 13k lots to 55k lots just days before tumbling to a 37-year low following the announcement of a historic debt financed tax cuts. The yen meanwhile saw no major changes ahead of Thursday’s USDJPY surge and subsequent 

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of the highlighted groups are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming


Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.