COT: Crude and fuel length jump one-third on tightening supply outlook COT: Crude and fuel length jump one-third on tightening supply outlook COT: Crude and fuel length jump one-third on tightening supply outlook

COT: Crude and fuel length jump one-third on tightening supply outlook

Ole Hansen

Head of Commodity Strategy

Summary:  Our weekly Commitment of Traders update highlights future positions and changes made by hedge funds and other speculators across commodities and forex during an extended reporting week to Tuesday, July 11. A week that saw stocks trade lower while continued dollar weakness was seen in the run up to last Wednesday’s lower than expected US inflation print. The 1% drop in the broad Bloomberg Dollar index supported a strong week in commodities, and with tightening supply of crude oil a key focus, hedge funds increased their crude and fuel exposure by one-third to a three-month high

Saxo Bank publishes weekly Commitment of Traders reports (COT) covering leveraged fund positions in commodities while in forex we use the broader measure called non-commercial.

What is the Commitments of Traders report?

The COT reports are issued by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the ICE Exchange Europe for Brent crude oil and gas oil. They are released every Friday after the U.S. close with data from the week ending the previous Tuesday. They break down the open interest in futures markets into different groups of users depending on the asset class.

Commodities: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User, Swap dealers, Managed Money and other
Financials: Dealer/Intermediary; Asset Manager/Institutional; Leveraged Funds and other
Forex: A broad breakdown between commercial and non-commercial (speculators)

The main reasons why we focus primarily on the behavior of speculators, such as hedge funds and trend-following CTA's are:

  • They are likely to have tight stops and no underlying exposure that is being hedged
  • This makes them most reactive to changes in fundamental or technical price developments
  • It provides views about major trends but also helps to decipher when a reversal is looming

Do note that this group tends to anticipate, accelerate, and amplify price changes that have been set in motion by fundamentals. Being followers of momentum, this strategy often sees this group of traders buy into strength and sell into weakness, meaning that they are often found holding the biggest long near the peak of a cycle or the biggest short position ahead of a through in the market.

Global Market Quick Take Europe
Saxo Market Call Daily Podcast

Commodity weekly: Weak dollar driven rally

This summary highlights futures positions and changes made by hedge funds across commodities and forex during an extended reporting week to last Tuesday, July 11. A week that saw stocks trade lower while continued dollar weakness was seen in the run up to last Wednesday’s lower than expected US inflation print. The 1% drop in the broad Bloomberg Dollar index supported a strong week in commodities, primarily driven by the energy sector while the bond market was mixed buying of 2’s and selling of 10’s driving an 18-basis point steepening of the curve.

Commodity sector:

In the extended reporting week from July 3 to 11, the Bloomberg Commodity Index traded up 1.8% with broad gains being led by a surging energy sector on tight supply focus, and together with small gains in precious metals, grains, and livestock they more than offset small losses in industrial metals and softs. On an individual basis 19 out of the 24 major commodity futures tracked in this report traded higher, with the highflyers being crude oil and fuel products rising by around 7%, and followed by PGM’s (Platinum Group Metals), corn, wheat and hogs. 

Responding to these developments the overall net long held by hedge funds rose 104k contracts to 1.097 million contracts, a three-week high, with strong net buying of energy (135k contracts) and livestock (15k) being offset by net selling in metals (4k) and grains (40k)

Crude oil and fuel products: Fund buying of Brent and WTI crude oil accelerated, and the combination of short covering (34k) and fresh longs (47k) triggered the biggest jump and net long in three months. Fuel products also saw strong demand, not least gas oil (diesel).
Gold, silver and copper: Ahead of the midweek CPI related rally, specs were small buyers of gold while cutting their silver length to a four-month low. The net shorts in both platinum and palladium rose despite improved price conditions while the copper long was cut by 58% to a five-week low
Grains: Despite trading higher, corn saw a second week of aggressive net selling as traders continued to adjust positions after being wrongfooted by the late June price slump. Soybeans saw net selling while wheat’s 3% price rally only attracted a small amount of short covering.
Softs & livestock: Coffee selling extended to a fourth week driven the net short to a six-month high. Profit taking reduced length in sugar and cocoa while strong buying of cotton saw the position flip back to a net long for the first time in four weeks.
In forex, it was a week that despite broad dollar weakness saw limited appetite from speculators to extend bearish dollar bets. Overall, it left the gross dollar short versus nine IMM futures and the Dollar index near unchanged at $11.2 billion, with selling of EUR and CHF being offset by demand for GBP and JPY.


The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
Full disclaimer (

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region


Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.