Market Quick Take - Oil slips under $90 as bank shares slide - 23 September 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Macro: Trump weighs an Iran deal against strikes while Xi arrives in Washington
• Equities: Semiconductors extended their run even as banks took their worst hit since March
• Volatility: Short-dated equity volatility fell sharply while longer-dated pricing stayed elevated
• Digital Assets: Crypto market value returned above three trillion dollars as leveraged positioning built
• Commodities: Oil falls but US diesel export ban looms; copper hits record as gold stays rangebound
• Fixed Income: Choppy yield picture as oil price volatility weighs.
• Currencies: USD follows through higher in broad rally.

Macro headlines

• Crude fell after Trump said US and Iranian officials held a “very productive” meeting and that he is weighing a deal versus “annihilating” the Islamic Republic, while a senior Iranian official signaled Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if Washington eases its oil blockade. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is working to restore flows through its East-West pipeline, reviving an export route that bypasses Hormuz.
• Trump–Xi summit: Xi Jinping arrives in Washington for his first US state visit in 11 years, with talks set to cover trade, AI, and geopolitics. Wall Street expects few breakthroughs, and Xi is not bringing a large CEO delegation, unlike the sizeable US corporate contingent.
• Australia’s flash manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in September from 52.0, the first contraction since March, with output down to 46.4 on weaker new and export orders, worsening supply delays, and still-elevated energy and fuel costs.
• Euro area consumer confidence fell to -16.5 in September 2026 from -15.5, missing forecasts of -16 and breaking a four-month improving trend amid geopolitical and inflation worries. EU-wide confidence also weakened, dropping to -15.8 from -15.
• More in our Macro Analysis & Macroeconomic News

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0715 – France Sept HCOB PMIs
0730 – Germany Sept PMIs
0800 – Eurozone Sept PMIs
0830 – UK August S&P Global PMIs
1345 – US Sept S&P Global PMIs
1430 – EIAs weekly crude and fuel stocks report

Earnings events

• Wednesday: Cintas, Paychex
• Thursday: Costco, H&M Hennes & Mauritz

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• US. The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.82% to 30,732.40, its first record close since June, on a sixth consecutive advance in the Philadelphia semiconductor index. The S&P 500 was little changed at 7,764.64, while the Dow fell 0.36% to 51,869.20 and the Russell 2000 added 0.51%. Financials were the weakest sector, down about 2%, the most since March, on concerns that Meta's Muse agent could disrupt banking and insurance distribution, with JPMorgan and large insurers leading the declines. That selling was absorbed by names seen as positioned to benefit, Shopify rising about 7% on moving quickly to integrate Muse, alongside Intel, AMD and Arm Holdings. Viking Therapeutics surged 36%, its best day since February 2024, after positive GLP trial results. KB Home reported a third-quarter double beat after the close, USD 1.05 a share on revenue of USD 1.30 billion, though housing revenue fell 20% year on year and net orders 12%; AutoZone gained about 5% before Tuesday's open on higher fourth-quarter profit and guidance for faster sales growth in 2027.
• Europe. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1% to 642.78, its highest close since 8 September, led by a 1.5% gain in the technology sub-index tracking Nasdaq strength. ASML contributed most to the index gain, rising 1.8%, while Kingfisher surged 12.4%, the largest single-stock move, after raising its full-year adjusted pre-tax profit forecast. The FTSE 100 fell 0.3% to 10,708.33, weighed by HSBC, down 1.6%, and BT Group, down 3.8%. The DAX was little changed at 25,578.85 with Zalando up 3.7%, while UBS fell 3.4% and dragged on the SMI.
• Asia. Regional equities rose for a sixth straight session on Wednesday morning, the MSCI Asia Pacific index up 0.4%, though the early enthusiasm has faded as the session progressed. The Kospi opened 1.9% higher but had given most of that back by the snapshot, standing at 7,039.33, up 0.31%, with the overnight gains in US memory names Micron and SanDisk cited as the early lead. The Hang Seng has turned lower, down 0.76% at 24,891.16, after closing Tuesday firmer on Tencent's 5.0% gain and the heaviest mainland Stock Connect buying in five weeks. The CSI 300 is 0.50% lower. Japanese markets are closed for a public holiday, so no Wednesday move is available for the Nikkei, and Asian bank and insurer shares face the same Muse disruption concerns that hit Wall Street financials.

Volatility

VIX 14.21 | VIX FUTURES: 17.35 | TERM STRUCTURE: CONTANGO | SKEW: ELEVATED (144.80) | MARKET REGIME: Low Vol Bull | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Crude's slide and signs of progress in the US-Iran talks coincided with subdued equity volatility. The VIX fell 4.4% to 14.21, while VIX1D collapsed 11.7% to 8.83 and VIX9D dropped 7.7% to 12.13. The front VIX future was little changed at 17.35.
• The cash curve held a steep contango, VIX3M at 17.61, about 1.24 times spot, while SKEW firmed 1.8% to 144.80 and VVIX eased to 83.17. MOVE fell 3.3% to 78.56, but crude volatility rose 3.1% to 51.89. SPXW pricing implies about 30 points, 0.38%, today and 57 points, 0.73%, into Friday.

More in our Options Trading - Stock Market Analysis & News

Digital Assets

BITCOIN ~86,711 +0.61% | ETHEREUM ~2,775 +0.80% | IBIT 48.83 -0.37% | ETHA 20.76 -0.43% | AS OF ~06:00 CET

• Crypto-linked equities firmed again as bitcoin held near its highest level since January. Miners led, with Riot up 3.1%, Iren 2.8%, Marathon 2.6% and CleanSpark 2.6%, while Coinbase was unchanged and Strategy slipped 0.7%. The two large US spot ETFs both eased slightly.
• Total digital-asset market value has reclaimed three trillion dollars for the first time since January, though open interest in perpetual futures has climbed to roughly 160 billion dollars, the highest since late October, which may point to a more leveraged market. Deribit's DVOL edged up to 37.79.

Commodities

• Oil. Crude trades lower for a sixth consecutive day as supply and diplomatic developments continue to erode the geopolitical risk premium. Saudi Arabia said it would soon restore exports through its East-West pipeline, while the US and Iran held a “very productive” meeting aimed at ending the war. With flows through the Strait already increasing and the Saudi pipeline restarting, Iran’s leverage appears to be weakening, helping push prices lower. Gasoil, the diesel and jet fuel feedstock, meanwhile holds near USD 200 per barrel, after Trump said he endorsed the idea of a diesel export ban, while highlighting that the main stress remains in refined products amid reduced capacity. Ahead of the weekly EIA report, API reported a 1.8-million-barrel rise in crude stocks, while gasoline and distillate inventories declined.
• HG Copper futures rose to a fresh record on Tuesday, briefly topping USD 6.90 per pound in New York before retreating to USD 6.82 this morning. While the US interest-rate outlook may provide a headwind, copper remains supported by strong underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals, including signs of pre-holiday tightening in China. According to Shanghai Metals Market, some imported copper has arrived, but much of it has gone directly to fabricators rather than warehouses, keeping spot supplies constrained.
• Gold continues to trade within its established narrow USD 4,300–4,400 range, with Fed comments and their impact on US rates, bond yields and the dollar, together with oil-price movements, providing the main direction for short-term traders. ETF holdings dipped slightly on Tuesday but have still seen inflows of around 48 tonnes this month, while China’s purchases through August topped 1,000 tonnes, already surpassing the whole of 2025.

More in our Commodity News, Analysis & Commentary

Fixed Income

• The US Treasury yields chopped around on Tuesday as oil prices dropped. The benchmark US 2-year yield had risen to a marginal new high for the cycle above 4.78% before dropping back on a sharp sell-off in oil prices Tuesday, falling to 4.71% before rebounding and stabilizing near 4.75%. The 10-year benchmark likewise chopped back and forth, but never tried the top of the range, ending the day near 4.96%. A US Treasury auction of 2-year notes sw indifferent demand metrics relative to prior auctions.
• German government bond yields chopped back and forth Tuesday on energy price developments, with yields pushed lower to eight-day lows on the drop in oil prices before rebounding back into the range and little changed on the day. The Germany-France 10-year yield spread widened back to 104 basis points and near the widest for the cycle after dropping below 99 basis points intraday.

Currencies

• The US dollar posted firmed broadly on Tuesday, finally following through after the post-FOMC rally last week as EURUSD dipped below 1.1450 and as low as 1.1426, GBPUSD pushed as low as 1.3315 early Wednesday and USDCAD as high as 1.4086.
• USDJPY was the exception in the strong US dollar picture. While the pair has pulled back higher, it has yet to challenge the highs from Friday after the Bank of Japan’s “rate check” on Friday suggested Japanese officialdom is on the prowl to push back against further weakness with intervention.
• More on currencies in our dedicated section: Forex Trading News & Analysis