Market Quick Take – 9 April 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Global equities surged as ceasefire relief lifted US and Europe, while Asia rallied strongly on lower oil and semiconductor strength
• Volatility: ceasefire relief, VIX lower, oil pressure easing, macro data ahead, downside hedging remains
• Digital Assets: relief bounce, BTC ~71k, ETH stable, IBIT/ETHA rebound
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebound sharply from lows on doubts about quality of cease-fire in Iran war.
• Currencies: US dollar bounced after sharp sell-off as market mulls status and quality of cease-fire in Iran war.
• Commodities: Crude prices rebound as chokepoint remains effectively shut
• Macro events: Germany Feb. Industrial Production, US Feb. PCE Inflation

Macro headlines

• US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but the passage remains mostly blocked and tanker traffic suspended after renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Iran says the terms of the truce have already been violated and disputes whether it covers Lebanon. US Vice President JD Vance, heading to Islamabad for talks with Iran, says there are signs the strait may begin to reopen.
• Fed March minutes showed inflation worries from the Iran war, but markets still priced in possible rate cuts later this year.
• The average 30-year fixed US mortgage rate for conforming loans dipped to 6.51% in the week ending April 3, 2026, from 6.57%, its first decline in over a month as Treasury yields fell on Middle East war worries. Overall applications still slipped 0.8%, with refis down 2.8% and purchase loans up 1.1%.
• RBNZ held its cash rate at 2.25%, flagged higher near-term inflation risks from Middle East tensions, and signaled possible hikes.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – Germany Feb. Industrial Production
1230 – US Feb. PCE Inflation
1230 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds
0130 – China Mar. PPI and CPI

Earnings this week

• Today: Fast Retailing

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 2.5% to 6,773.1, the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.7% to 22,603.4, and the Dow Jones jumped 2.7% to 47,824.2 as a ceasefire announcement triggered a broad relief rally and sharply lower oil prices. Airlines led gains, with United Airlines up 9.6%, American Airlines rising 7.4%, and Delta Air Lines gaining 5.4% on easing fuel cost expectations. Levi Strauss climbed 10.6% after reporting stronger-than-expected results and raising full-year guidance. Energy stocks lagged as Exxon Mobil fell 6.4% and Occidental Petroleum dropped 6.6% on the oil decline, with markets now watching whether the ceasefire holds.
• Europe: The STOXX 600 surged 3.9%, Germany’s DAX jumped 5.1% to 24,080.63, France’s CAC 40 rose 5.0% to 8,304.55, and the FTSE 100 gained 2.5% to 10,608.88 as investors welcomed falling energy prices and easing geopolitical risks. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with EasyJet and TUI both jumping more than 10% on improved demand and lower fuel costs. Industrials and materials also advanced broadly, while energy lagged as Equinor dropped as much as 13% alongside the sharp fall in oil. Focus now shifts to whether macro momentum can sustain the rebound.
• Asia: Asian markets rallied strongly, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 5.4% to 56,308.42, South Korea’s Kospi jumping 6.9% to 5,872.34, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbing 3.1% to 25,893.02 as ceasefire optimism boosted risk appetite. Semiconductor names led gains, with Samsung Electronics up 7.1% and SK Hynix surging 13% on strong AI-driven demand expectations. In Hong Kong, Meituan rose 10.3%, Alibaba gained 6.8%, and HSBC added 6.6% as investors rotated back into cyclicals. Attention now turns to whether this rebound holds as geopolitical headlines evolve.

Volatility

• Volatility eased sharply on Wednesday as the Iran ceasefire rally reduced pressure on oil, inflation expectations and broader risk sentiment. The VIX fell to 21.04 while the S&P 500 gained 2.51%, reflecting a clear shift away from worst-case geopolitical scenarios. Still, this looks like relief rather than full calm: the ceasefire is temporary, tensions remain unresolved, and markets are likely to stay sensitive to headlines. Today’s focus shifts to U.S. macro data, including core PCE, jobless claims and the 30-year bond auction, which could test whether the drop in oil translates into a more durable easing in inflation concerns.
• SPX expected move for the week: options pricing implies roughly a 145-point move (~2.2%) into week-end.
• Daily skew indicator: today’s expiry shows a mild downside skew, with puts still priced slightly richer than calls around current levels, indicating investors continue to hedge against renewed downside risk.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets participated in the broader risk-on move, but the rebound remains measured rather than decisive. Bitcoin briefly moved back above $72,000 before settling near $71,000, while Ether traded around $2,180; XRP and Solana held modest gains, reflecting improved sentiment but limited follow-through. The key takeaway for investors is that crypto continues to behave as a high-beta extension of global risk appetite, reacting quickly to geopolitical relief but lacking strong independent momentum.
• Looking at listed vehicles, both IBIT and ETHA rebounded strongly on Wednesday, confirming the improvement in sentiment. However, positioning data still points to a more cautious backdrop: ETF flows and options activity suggest investors are selectively adding exposure while maintaining protection. In practical terms, this supports the view that the recent move is a relief rally rather than a clear trend shift, with further upside likely dependent on sustained macro stability and renewed inflows.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries sold off after gapping significantly higher early Wednesday, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield closing the day almost unchanged from Tuesday’s close near 3.79% after trading as low as 3.71% intraday. Yield rose later in the day Wednesday as Iran cast doubts on the status of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Similarly, the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rebounded from a multiweek low Wednesday near 4.23% to close near 4.29%, almost unchanged from the prior day’s close.
• Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened Thursday as short yields rose very slightly to just below the cycle highs, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield trading just below 1.40%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose justover three basis points to trade near 2.40%, just four basis points shy of the cycle high since the 1990’s posted earlier this week at 2.44%.

Commodities

• Crude prices rebounded following their biggest one-day drop since April 2020, with Brent challenging resistance ahead of USD 100. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed after Israeli attacks on Lebanon - seen by Iran as a breach of the fragile ceasefire. According to the WSJ, Iran has told mediators it will limit traffic through the Strait to around 12 ships per day and impose tolls under the ceasefire. That is a sharp reduction from the 100+ daily transits before the war, effectively leaving most of the 1,000+ commercial vessels inside the Persian Gulf stranded. At the same time, shipowners may hesitate to send in empty tankers to load fresh cargoes, further tightening near-term supply.
• In the physical market, stress remains evident. Dated Brent - reflecting prompt cargoes - settled at USD 124.5 on Wednesday, with several bids left unanswered (Platts), underscoring a rapidly tightening supply backdrop.
• The ceasefire announcement triggered sharp cross-commodity moves, leaving the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) down 4.6% on the day. Losses in crude, diesel, and gasoline, as well as weakness in wheat, corn, and sugar, outweighed gains in metals, led by silver and copper.
• Gold pared gains to trade around USD 4,722 after reaching USD 4,856 on Wednesday after Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said three clauses of the temporary US-Iran ceasefire had been violated. Copper advanced 3.2% to settle at USD 12,709 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, hitting a three-week high on improved risk sentiment, while silver surged to a USD 77.64 high before seeing a sharp retracement to trade around USD 74 in early Thursday trading.

Currencies

• The US dollar rebounded after a steep sell-off as Iran cast doubts on the status of a cease-fire and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz declared by the Trump administration in early Asian hours Wednesday. EURUSD dropped back as low as 1.1651 before rebounding close to 1.1670 in Asian trading hours Thursday after posting a high of 1.1722 Wednesday. USDJPY traded near 158.67 early Thursday, rebounding from the Wednesday low of 157.89.

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