Market Quick Take – 5 March 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. tech rebound and Europe recovery lifted sentiment, while Asia stayed fragile after Korea’s record slide.
• Volatility: Iran conflict watch, oil-driven inflation risk, volatility easing but elevated, tail-risk hedging persists
• Digital Assets: Bitcoin steady near $72k, ethereum around $2.1k, crypto equities surge, policy optimism boosts sentiment
• Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rebounding, US 10-year yield at new three-week high
• Currencies: US dollar and Japanese yen firm versus other major currencies
• Commodities: Crude oil pri, Gold and silver steady.
• Macro events: Sweden Feb. CPI, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Jan. Challenger Job Cuts

Macro headlines

• A US submarine allegedly sank an Iranian warship near Sri Lanka, the first such strike since WWII. The US-Israeli campaign is in its sixth day, worrying markets over a prolonged conflict. The Strait of Hormuz is blocked after Iran's IRGC threats. President Trump offered insurance and escorts for Gulf vessels, while Treasury Secretary Bessent suggested market-stabilizing measures.
• One Chinese bulk carrier ship designed to transport crude oil transited the Strait of Hormuz signaling “China Owner” as it hugged the Omani coastline through the strait.
• The US ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February, the strongest reading since mid-2022 and beating expectations of 53.5. New orders surged to 58.6 and Employment improved to 51.8, while supplier deliveries slowed at 53.9. The Prices Index fell to 63 vs. 68.3 expected and 66.6 in January, indicating lower cost pressures.
• US private businesses added 63,000 jobs in February, led by education and health services with 58,000. Small businesses created 60,000 jobs, while medium-sized firms cut 7,000. Job-stayers' pay growth held at 4.5%; for job-changers, it slowed to 6.3%.
• Euro Area producer prices rose 0.7% in January 2026, reversing December's 0.3% drop and exceeding the 0.2% forecast. Energy prices and gains in intermediate, durable consumer, and capital goods drove the increase, while non-durable goods prices fell 0.2%. Annually, prices decreased by 2.1%.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0700 – Sweden Feb. CPI
0745 – France Jan. Industrial Production
1000 – Eurozone Jan. Retail Sales
1230 – US Feb. Challenger Job Cuts
1330 – US Jan. Import Price Index
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims

Earnings this week

• Today: Costco, Petrobras, Marvell Technology, Merck, Deutsche Post, Reckitt Benckiser, Ciena, Galderma, Kroger, Universal MusicGroup, JD.com, Aviva
• Friday: OTP Bank

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 6,869.50, the Dow gained 0.5% to 48,739.41, and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.5% to 25,093.68 as oil eased after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled support for Persian Gulf oil flows and new 15% global tariffs loomed, while ADP job growth and softer services inflation steadied nerves. Chip and megacap tech led, with AMD up 5.8% and Amazon up 3.9%, while Moderna surged 16.0% after a patent settlement removed a major overhang. After the close, Broadcom climbed 5.0% on upbeat guidance and a $10 billion buyback, keeping focus on Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s jobs report.
• Europe: Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.7% to 5,870.92, STOXX 600 gained 1.4% to 612.71, and the FTSE 100 added 0.8% to 10,567.65 as talk of diplomacy cooled the worst energy-supply fears. Banks and tech led the rebound, with Santander up 3.9%, ASML up 3.3%, while Adidas slid 7.0% after cautious profit guidance. Spanish stocks recovered from early trade-threat jitters, while UK homebuilders stayed weak. Markets watched oil and gas prices and any fresh U.S. trade headlines, which can move sentiment faster than most earnings calls.
• Asia: The Kospi rebounded 9.6% to 5,583.90, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.9% to 55,279.06 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was flat. Korea’s heavyweights led the rebound, with Samsung Electronics up 11.3%, SK Hynix down 10.8%. In China, the Shanghai Composite improved 0.5% to 4,103.1 Markets looked for signs of policy support and calmer shipping routes.

Volatility

• Market volatility cooled slightly on Wednesday after the sharp spike earlier this week as investors continue to digest the geopolitical shock from the Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran. The CBOE VIX closed at 21.15 on 4 March, down 2.42 points on the day as equities rebounded, suggesting that the initial panic phase is easing even though uncertainty remains elevated. Short-dated volatility also declined, with VIX1D around 17.83 and VIX9D near 20.60, signalling that near-term hedging demand has moderated but not disappeared. Meanwhile, CBOE SKEW remains elevated around 152.87, indicating investors are still paying up for tail-risk protection.

• Based on options pricing, the S&P 500 expected move into the end of the week (6 March expiry) is about ±77.9 points, or roughly ±1.13% from current levels.

• 0DTE skew check: today’s options chain shows a mild upside skew, with at-the-money call implied volatility slightly higher than puts around the 6,870 strike, suggesting some traders are positioning for rebound scenarios while still maintaining downside protection.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets traded with a firmer tone alongside the rebound in risk appetite across global markets. Bitcoin is trading near $72,600, while Ethereum holds around $2,130, both stabilising after the volatility seen earlier in the week. Major altcoins also remain resilient, with Solana near $90 and XRP around $1.42, reflecting a broader improvement in crypto sentiment.

• Institutional flows continue to support the asset class. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) both moved higher in the latest session, with IBIT closing around $41.44 (+7.1%) and ETHA around $16.25 (+8.8%). Crypto-related equities rallied strongly as well, with Coinbase (+14.6%) and MicroStrategy (+10.4%) leading gains as regulatory optimism resurfaced in the United States.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries sold off Wednesday and in Thursday’s Asian session, with the benchmark 2-year yield rising several basis points to above 3.55%, still below the intraday spike from Tuesday just below 3.60%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield rose clear of its Tuesday spike and traded at three week highs near 4.12% late in Asian hours Thursday before the US open. The major range high from earlier this year is up just above 4.30%.
• US high yield corporate bonds were snapped up Wednesday, with the Bloomberg measure of high yield spreads to US treasury yields we track tightening sharply by 14 basis points to 281 basis points, reflecting a strong surge in risk sentiment.
• Japan’s government bond yield curve steepened as benchmark 2-year JGB yields nudged only slightly higher while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield jumped over four basis points and was trading above 2.16% and near two-week highs. A 30-year JGB auction saw solid demand, with the yield rising less than the 10-year benchmark in Thursday’s session.

Commodities

• Crude oil price rebounded in Asian hours Thursday and traded back close to recent highs on the concerns linked to the Iran war, with May Brent above USD 84 per barrel after closing Wednesday at 81.4 per barrel. April WTI likewise traded up nearly three dollars per barrel from Wednesday’s close, and at 77.60.
• Gold and silver steadied and tried to rally again in Asian hours Thursday, but the price action remains in the shadow of the steep Tuesday sell-off. Gold is up some USD 25 from Wednesday’s close near USD 5,167 and Silver is up over 85 cents to 84.40 in a volatile session with a more than two-dollar trading range.

Currencies

• The US dollar rebounded slightly in Asian hourse Thursday after modest weakness on Wednesday as global risk sentiment recovered. US macro data saw a very strong ISM Services for February (see above) while a Fed Beige Book was cautiously optimistic but noted the K-shaped economy as the wealthy and higher earners continued to spend while the lower and middle income households were pulling back. EURUSD traded at 1.1600 after the 1.1647 high and AUDUSD rolled over toe 0.7046 after a 0.7089 high.
• The Japanese yen firmed in Thursday’s Asian session, but the US dollar bounce later in the session saw USDJPY lifting from a 156.46 low to 157.15, slightly higher from the Wednesday close, while EURJPY however near local lows at 182.30 late in Tokyo hours.

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