Market Quick Take – 4 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US records held, Europe faced tariff noise, while Asia’s AI supply chain kept pulling investors back in.
• Volatility: VIX ~17, KOSPI surge supports sentiment, event-heavy week ahead, oil and geopolitics in focus
• Digital Assets: BTC ~80k, ETH steady, altcoins higher, IBIT/ETHA inflows support sentiment
• Fixed Income: US 10-year yield ~4.37%, Treasury borrowing update ahead, Fed speakers, payrolls in focus
• Currencies: USD mixed, yen intervention focus, AUD firm before RBA, NOK supported by energy
• Commodities: Brent above USD 100, Hormuz shipping hopes, Kuwait exports disrupted, gold supported
• Macro events: US to guide neutral ships to exit Straits of Hormuz.

Macro headlines

• Oil remains the macro anchor as markets watch whether the US plan to help free ships stuck around the Strait of Hormuz can ease supply pressure. Brent slipped on Monday, but stayed above 100 USD per barrel as negotiations remained stuck and shipping risk stayed high. For investors, the message is simple: oil is still doing macro policy work, sadly without a job title.
• Central banks are moving back into inflation-watch mode. Higher energy prices are pushing the European Central Bank and Bank of England closer to possible rate hikes in June, even as growth remains fragile. The Bank of England kept rates unchanged last week, but one member already voted for a 0.25 percentage-point hike.
• Trade risk is back in Europe. President Trump’s plan to lift tariffs on EU cars and trucks to 25% from next week adds pressure to automakers already dealing with higher energy costs and weaker consumer confidence. Markets will watch whether Brussels retaliates or tries to keep the disagreement in the “annoying but manageable” bucket.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

07:50 – France April manufacturing PMI final.
07:55 – Germany April manufacturing PMI final
08:00 – Eurozone April manufacturing PMI final

Earnings this week

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 7,230.12 on Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9% and the Dow slipped 0.3%, as strong earnings and lower oil prices kept risk appetite alive. Apple rose 3.3% after better results and upbeat guidance, Estée Lauder gained 3.4% after lifting its profit outlook, and Sandisk jumped 8.3% on strong data-centre demand. Exxon Mobil fell 1.0% and Chevron lost 1.4% as oil pulled back despite earnings beats. Over the weekend, Berkshire’s record cash pile and GameStop’s surprise eBay offer added plenty for investors to chew on, coffee optional.
• Europe: Most continental European markets were closed on Friday for Labour Day, leaving London to carry the regional tape. The FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to 10,363.93 in thin trading, while the latest full STOXX 600 session was Thursday’s 1.4% gain to 611.28. AstraZeneca fell 3.1% after a US advisory panel voted against its experimental breast cancer treatment, BP lost 2.0% as oil prices eased and reports pointed to a possible North Sea exit, while NatWest dropped 3.5% despite a profit beat as investors focused on cautious economic assumptions. European automakers will be watched closely after Trump’s new 25% tariff threat.
• Asia: Asia traded firmer on Monday, with South Korea again at the centre of the action as the Kospi opened 2.8% higher at 6,782.93 after a 31% April surge. The rally was helped by AI supply-chain momentum, with investors chasing companies linked to Nvidia’s push into robotics, mobility and “physical AI”, which is a fancy way of saying AI wants legs, wheels and factories. LG Electronics rose on Nvidia collaboration hopes, Nanya Technology surged 10% on reported partnership news, and Singapore’s DBS climbed 3.4% on April 30 after record first-quarter net income. Japan and mainland China were closed for Golden Week holidays.

Volatility

• Volatility remains contained, but not complacent. The VIX closed Friday at 16.99, while futures are slightly softer, signalling no immediate stress, yet investors are still navigating a dense macro backdrop. Stronger global risk sentiment, helped by a sharp rally in South Korea’s KOSPI (+4.6%), is supporting equities, but this is balanced by elevated oil prices, ongoing Middle East tensions, and a busy US data week ahead, including ISM services, JOLTS, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
• Based on SPX options pricing, the market is implying a move of about 97 points (1.34%) into Friday’s expiry, while today’s expected move is around 43 points (0.59%).
• The 0DTE skew indicator shows a clear downside bias, with puts priced richer than calls near spot (for example, at the 7,230 strike, puts trade around 22.8 versus calls near 20.0), indicating that investors continue to prioritise downside protection over upside participation.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are trading with a firmer tone, broadly in line with the improved risk backdrop. Bitcoin is holding around USD 80,000, while Ether is near USD 2,380, both supported by steady ETF demand and stronger sentiment across risk assets. Gains are extending modestly into altcoins, with Solana (~USD 85), XRP (~USD 1.41), and Dogecoin (~USD 0.11) also moving higher.
• ETF-linked flows remain a key driver. IBIT (+2.6%) and ETHA (+2.0%) are both advancing, reflecting continued institutional participation, even as positioning remains balanced. Recent options activity shows investors adding upside exposure in crypto-linked equities such as MSTR, while still buying downside protection in IBIT, highlighting a market that is constructive but still hedged.
• The broader takeaway is that crypto is benefiting from improving sentiment and sustained ETF inflows, but remains sensitive to macro developments, particularly interest rates, liquidity conditions, and geopolitical risks.

Fixed Income

• US Treasury yields were steady into the new week, with the 10-year yield around 4.37% after edging slightly lower on Friday. The bond market is balancing two forces: oil prices remain high enough to keep inflation concerns alive, but signs of possible shipping relief through the Strait of Hormuz have eased the most extreme supply-shock fears. Investors will focus this week on the US Treasury’s quarterly borrowing update, several Federal Reserve speakers, and Friday’s US jobs report, which could shape expectations for the next move in policy rates.
• Asian credit markets remain calm, with investment-grade dollar bond spreads still tight despite the ongoing uncertainty around Middle East energy flows.

Commodities

• Oil eased in early Monday trading after President Trump said the US would help guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes that some disrupted flows could resume. Brent briefly fell toward USD 105.55 before paring losses, while WTI traded near USD 101, leaving crude lower but still very elevated by recent standards. The market remains fragile because the plan’s implementation is uncertain, and Kuwait’s oil exports reportedly falling to zero underlines how severe the regional supply disruption has become.
• Gold remains supported by safe-haven demand as investors continue to watch the Middle East conflict, oil prices, and the yen. Any durable easing in the Strait of Hormuz would likely cool demand for defensive assets, but until shipping flows normalise, gold should remain sensitive to geopolitical headlines and shifts in real yields.

Currencies

• The US dollar is mixed against G10 peers, with the yen still the main focus after last week’s sharp intervention-driven move. USDJPY is trading around 156–157, after Japan reportedly spent about JPY 5.4 trillion to stop the yen weakening beyond 160 per dollar. The immediate pressure has eased, but the yen remains vulnerable as long as oil prices stay high and the interest-rate gap with the US remains wide.
• The Australian dollar is slightly firmer around 0.721, helped by improved risk sentiment after the Strait of Hormuz shipping announcement and ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting, where markets expect another rate hike. The Norwegian krone remains the strongest G10 currency year-to-date, supported by high energy prices, while the Danish krone is among the weakest performers against the dollar.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.