Market Quick Take – 1 May 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and Europe rallied on earnings relief, Asia was holiday-thinned, with Japan and Australia firmer while China and Hong Kong closed.
• Fixed Income: Yields dipped Thursday as crude oil prices corrected lower and after key central bank meetings.
• Currencies: The Japanese yen spiked sharply higher on explicit and stern intervention threats from Japan’s ministry of finance
• Commodities: Broad April gains as 63-day paused war lifts commodities across sectors
• Macro events: US Apr. ISM Manufacturing

Macro headlines

• Its day 63 of the paused Middle East war and day 24 of the ceasefire and global energy prices continue to rise amid concerns the Strait of Hormuz may not reopen anytime soon. There are limited signs of a US-Iran deal, as the US doubled down on a blockade and Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei cast doubt on the likelihood of a deal, giving a rare statement in which he vowed not to give up the country’s nuclear or missile technologies. He also signalled Tehran would keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• The European Central Bank and Bank of England are considering interest-rate hikes as soon as June to address inflation triggered by the Middle East conflict. ECB’s Lagarde suggested that euro-zone rate-setters will consider a hike at their June meeting after debating whether to make a move. The BOE voted to leave rates unchanged, but several policymakers suggested they are entertaining the idea of backing a rate rise soon.
• The yen surged after Japan intervened in the FX market, following a “final” warning from officials against further selling of the currency. The move was in line with G7 guidelines, which allow action when markets become excessively volatile, with US officials notified ahead of the intervention. Focus now turns to whether the US may join Japan in supporting the yen - a move that would send a much stronger signal to speculators. 

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0600 – UK April Nationwide House Prices
0830 – UK March Mortgage Approvals
1400 – US April ISM Manufacturing 

Earnings this week

• Today: ExxonMobil, Chevron, Linde, Mitsubishi, Aalberts NV, Pearson PLC

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: The S&P 500 rose 1.0% to 7,209.01, the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.0% to 27,452.12, and the Dow advanced 1.6% as strong earnings helped investors look past volatile oil and sticky inflation. Alphabet jumped 10.0% after strong cloud results, Caterpillar rose 9.9% on a better outlook tied to data-center construction demand, and Eli Lilly gained almost 10% after earnings beat expectations. Apple traded higher after hours after beating estimates, guiding above expectations, and announcing a larger buyback, while Meta fell 8.6% and Microsoft lost 3.9% as investors questioned rising AI infrastructure spending. The next test is whether AI spending keeps producing receipts, not just very expensive invoices.
  
  
• Europe: The Stoxx 600 rose 1.4% to 611.28, while Germany’s DAX gained about 1.4%, and the FTSE 100 climbed 1.6%. The rally came as oil eased from recent spikes, the European Central Bank and Bank of England held rates steady, and first-quarter earnings looked better than feared. Rolls-Royce surged 7.6% after keeping its profit outlook, Novo Nordisk rose 6.5%, AstraZeneca added 1.9%, and Puma gained 5.3% after stronger sales and operating profit. Universal Music fell 8.1% after weaker revenue and a planned partial Spotify stake sale.
  
  
• Asia: Asia was mixed in a holiday-thinned session, with China, Hong Kong and Singapore closed for May Day. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% to 59,687.65 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.0% to 8,750.40, helped by Wall Street’s record close and calmer oil prices. The regional story stayed simple: investors liked the earnings support from global tech and industrial names, but the Iran conflict and energy prices kept the macro backdrop uncomfortable. With several markets shut, today’s Asia signal was useful, but thinner than usual.

Fixed Income

• The US treasury yields fell in tandem with crude oil prices, which fell from fresh highs. The benchmark 2-year treasury trades early Friday approximately 6 basis points below the highs from Thursday and near 3.88%, while the benchmark 10-year treasury yield is some five basis points below the highs of early Thursday, trading below 4.39%.
• European yields dipped sharply from local highs as crude oil prices also fell yesterday. The benchmark 2-year German Bund fell some ten basis points to 2.64%. On Thursday, the ECB clearly warned that it was looking at raising its policy rate should energy prices continue to drive inflationary risks, although it claimed it was not on a pre-committed path. The forward policy path expectation was little changed after the meeting, with the bank priced to hike its policy rate almost 0.75% through the December ECB meeting.
• Japanese government bond yields were marginally lower as the Japanese yen saw significant volatility on official intervention threats. The benchmark 2-year JGB yield trades steady near 1.38%, while the benchmark 10-year JGB yield dipped slightly after a choppy session, trading a bit more than a basis point lower and near 2.51% after Thursday saw the benchmark closing at its highest level in almost 30 years. 

Commodities

• The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index rose 4% in April, lifting its year-to-date gain to 30%, with all sectors except precious metals posting positive returns. Energy led the advance: despite a 10% slump in natural gas, the sector still rose around 8%, taking its YTD gain to 74%. The now 63-day Middle East war has severely disrupted key supply chains, tightening global markets for crude, fuels, gas, petrochemicals, fertilizers, and some industrial metals. Top performers include Brent, cotton, gasoline, diesel, and soybean oil.
• Brent Crude remains elevated after hitting a wartime high on Thursday, with no sign that US and Iranian blockades of the Strait of Hormuz will be lifted anytime soon, prolonging and worsening the supply squeeze. An oil major has warned of imminent “critical shortages” for some nations. However, Thursday’s sharp reversal underscores a market that is taking the stairs up but risks the elevator down on any sudden easing headline - making conditions exceptionally challenging for traders.
• Gold ended April little changed despite a late oil-driven wobble sparked by inflation and rate-hike concerns. That pressure began to ease on Thursday when bullion found fresh support despite surging oil prices and a post-FOMC rise in bond yields. Meanwhile, intervention by the Bank of Japan sent the dollar sharply lower against the yen, potentially adding further support to gold as a sustained yen rally may trigger the unwinding of yen-funded carry trades, creating broader market volatility that increases demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. 

Currencies

• The Japanese yen saw enormous volatility on stern and explicit intervention threats from Japan’s finance ministry. After probing well above what was seen as an important line in the sand at 160.00, USDJPY smashed lower to below 156.00 at one point before bobbing back up above 157.00. From here, the market will look for actual intervention rather than stern warnings to the market, and whether the US side speaks up in favour of Japan’s actions. Additional factors that are critical for the level of the Japanese yen are crude oil prices (with Japan heavily reliant historically on crude oil shipments that go through the Hormuz Strait) and the differentials of policy rates between the BoJ and other central banks, with, for example, the ECB and BoE priced to hike rates some 75 basis points this year
• The heavy USDJPY selling weighed on the US dollar more broadly, as EURUSD rebounded back above 1.1700 and traded as high as 1.1736 early Friday after posting a 1.1655 low on Thursday. GBPUSD tested above 1.3600 at one point late Thursday and early Friday, its highest level since February. USDCAD posted a new low since early March below 1.3600, while AUDUSD closed just above 0.7200 Thursday before pulling back slightly – that was the highest daily close since 2022.

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