Market Quick Take – 25 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: Tech-led U.S. rebound on rising December Fed-cut odds, Europe edged higher as semis offset Novo’s Alzheimer setback, Asia mixed.
• Volatility: VIX eases toward low-20s; options price ±80pt SPX week; mild upside skew on today’s expiry.
• Digital assets: BTC steady near $88k; IBIT/ETHA outflows persist; alt-coins stabilise with modest gains.
• Currencies: JPY firms slightly on new comments from officials. USD sideways
• Commodities: Strong rebound in precious metals, Crude oil under pressure on anticipation Ukraine peace deal would release Russian crude.
• Fixed Income: Short Japanese yields hit new post-2008 high. US treasury yields drop.
• Macro events: US Sep. Retail Sales, US Nov. Philly Fed survey, US Sep. PPI, US Nov. Consumer Confidence, Australia Oct. CPI, New Zealand RBNZ decision

Macro headlines

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller backs a December interest‑rate cut amid labour‑market concerns and expects a meeting‑by‑meeting approach from January, while futures put the odds at about 70% for the 9–10 December meeting.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backs cutting rates next month amid a deteriorating labour market she sees as vulnerable to a non‑linear shift, views an inflation breakout as a lesser risk, and says the Fed can return inflation to 2% without higher unemployment—failure to do so would be a policy failure.
• Germany's IFO Business Climate Index fell to 88.1 in November, missing forecasts and signaling limited recovery prospects. Expectations declined, manufacturers and traders grew more pessimistic, and construction confidence dropped. Meanwhile, service sector sentiment improved, boosted by strong tourism.
• US President Trump and China’s President Xi held their first talks since last month’s tariff truce; Trump called it “very good,” citing trade, farm purchases and fentanyl, while rare‑earth sales talks aim for “general licences” by month’s end.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by the recent shutdown
1330 – US Sep. Retail Sales
1330 – US Sep. PPI
1330 – US Nov. Philly Fed Survey
1400 – US Sep. Home Price Index
1500 – US Nov. Consumer Confidence
1800 – US Treasury to auction 5-year notes
0030 – Australia Oct. CPI
0100 – New Zealand RBNZ Rate Decision
0200 – RBNZ Press Conference

Earnings events

• Today: Analog Devices, Dell Technologies, Autodesk, Workday, Compass Group, Zscaler, HP Inc, NetApp, Best Buy
• Wednesday: Deere

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks rallied Monday as Fed officials revived hopes of a December rate cut. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, the Nasdaq jumped 2.7% and the Dow added 0.4%, while interest-rate futures now imply roughly 80% odds of a 25 basis-point move at the 9–10 December meeting. The AI complex led the charge: Broadcom surged 11.1% as the Gemini 3 and Google TPU story reignited demand for AI infrastructure, Alphabet climbed 6.3% and briefly overtook Microsoft by market value, and Tesla gained 6.8% after highlighting progress on its own next-generation AI chips. Attention now turns to delayed U.S. retail sales and producer-price data, which could still shape the Fed’s final call in December.
• Europe: European equities inched higher as the U.S. tech rebound and softer Fed rhetoric helped trim last week’s losses. The Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.3% and the Stoxx 600 gained 0.1%. Semiconductors were the bright spot, with ASML up 3.0% and Infineon 3.7%, while industrial names such as Siemens and Schneider Electric also advanced. Banks were mixed: Nordea added about 1.4% on continued buybacks, but Italian lenders lagged as UniCredit and Intesa slipped. Novo Nordisk tumbled roughly 5.8% after its oral Ozempic pill failed to slow Alzheimer’s progression in large phase-3 trials, reminding investors that blockbuster weight-loss stories still carry significant pipeline risk.
• Asia: Asian trading delivered a patchy picture into the Fed meeting and key China data. Japan’s cash equity market was closed for Labor Thanksgiving Day, so the Nikkei 225 was unchanged. Hong Kong led regional gains as U.S. rate-cut bets and AI headlines lifted risk appetite: the Hang Seng jumped 2.0% and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbed 2.8%. Reports that Washington may allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be sold into China supported sentiment around the AI supply chain. Alibaba rose 4.7% on strong traction for its Qwen chatbot, while EV maker Leapmotor gained 5.8% and Innovent Biologics rallied ahead of index inclusion. On the mainland, the CSI 300 slipped 0.1% as defence stocks outperformed but broader appetite stayed cautious ahead of industrial-profit and trade releases.

Volatility

• Volatility eased for a second day, though the broader backdrop still feels unsettled. The VIX slipped back toward the 20–21 area after last week’s spike above 26, helped by a broad equity rebound and a softer tone in rate expectations. For investors, the focus now shifts to a compact but important data window: US consumer confidence today, Wednesday’s delayed GDP update, and Thursday’s PCE inflation release. Together, these will shape expectations heading into the December Fed meeting.
• Options on this Friday’s SPX expiry are pricing an implied weekly move of roughly ±80 points (about ±1.2%) from current levels. Today’s same-day SPX expiration shows a mild upside skew, with at-the-money calls holding a slightly higher implied volatility than comparable puts, signalling investors are more willing to pay for a continued relief rally than for crash protection.
• Option flows remain defensive. Both SPX and SPY show persistent demand for downside hedges, especially in the 1–3 month bucket and in long-dated protection out to 2027–2028. Short-dated upside calls are still being traded tactically, but in much smaller size — keeping the prevailing regime firmly in “long but hedged”.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are stabilising after a volatile November, with bitcoin holding near $87–88k, ethereum just under $3,000, and major alt-coins showing modest gains. Sentiment has improved slightly thanks to rising market conviction in a December Fed rate cut, but investors remain cautious after October’s flash crash and the five-week streak of ETF outflows.
• ETF flows remain the key driver. IBIT has seen roughly $1.1 billion in outflows over the past week and $2.2 billion for November, even as its NAV bounced more than 5% yesterday. ETHA shows a similar pattern: NAV recovered nearly 9% on Monday, but recent sessions included $90–110 million redemptions, a reminder that sentiment in Ethereum remains fragile despite long-term institutional interest.
• Alt-coins are enjoying a technical bounce. XRP and solana outperformed, while crypto-equity names (MSTR, COIN, RIOT, CLSK) traded broadly higher alongside the wider risk-asset rebound. Venture-capital activity has also picked up — Q3 saw $4.6 billion in crypto-related funding, the second-strongest quarter since 2022, suggesting early-stage confidence remains intact even as listed-product flows fluctuate.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied further on a strong two-year treasury auction and on recent Fed rhetoric that has the market pricing higher odds of a December rate cut, which is now priced at 76% likely. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield fell slightly to close just below 3.50% for the first time this month, while the benchmark 10-year yield also posted another low close for the month of November yesterday at 4.025% before rebounding to 4.038% in the Asian session. Today the US Treasury will auction 5-year notes.
• Japanese government bonds came under pressure again as Japan returned from a long weekend, with Japan’s 2-year JGB benchmark yield rising to a new cycle-high close of 0.97%, just above the recent cycle high since 2008. The benchmark 10-year JGB Yield alo rose slightly, to 1.81%, but is below last Thursday’s high of 1.845%.

Commodities

• Gold steadied after yesterday’s surge, supported by growing confidence that the US will cut interest rates next month. A tightening US repo market hints at emerging funding stress, while positive December seasonality and improved risk sentiment in equities added to the constructive tone. From below USD 49 on Friday, silver now trades back above USD 51.5.
• Oil prices trade lower after Monday’s risk-on bounce, as signs of progress in Ukraine peace talks raise the prospect of increased Russian supply returning to the market.

Currencies

• The US dollar trades with little volatility, pulling back slightly to the strong side after selling off yesterday as dovish Fed signals have pushed US short-term treasury yields to multi-week lows.
• The JPY firmed slightly as Japan returned from a long weekend and another Japanese minister weighed in with comments on the yen, with USDJPY trading 156.70 this morning in late Asian hours after a run back above 157.00 yesterday, while EURJPY is mid range relative to the prior day, trading just above 180.50.
• A big test tonight for both NZD and AUD as New Zealand’s central bank, the RBNZ is likely to cut rates, with the market looking for signals on whether the bank views this as the final cut for the cycle for now, while Australia releases its October CPI data just ahead of the RBNZ decision. AUDNZD has undergone a massive repricing this year on the diverging policy trajectories of the dovish RBNZ and more hawkish RBA.

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