Market Quick Take – 9 October 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: U.S. set fresh records on AI strength and dovish Fed minutes; Europe rose on steel-quota curbs despite weak German data and France jitters; Asia mixed with Hong Kong softer as China reopens
• Volatility: VIX lower – calm index, high dispersion – SPX ±22 pts – Powell speech – earnings next
• Digital Assets: BTC $122k – ETF inflows – ETH soft – alt-coins mixed – institutional flows steady
• Currencies: USD rally fizzling, JPY sell-off also eases as Takaichi struggles to piece together governing coalition
• Commodities: Gold bounces from USD 4,000 support, crude softer as Middle East tensions ease
• Fixed Income: Yields little changed in Japan or US, France-Germany yield spread eases
• Macro events: ECB Minutes, US Treasury to auction 30-year T-Bonds

Macro headlines

• China declares comprehensive export controls on rare earth exports as a move to protect national security. Under new rules, Chinese companies will need government approval to export products containing rare earth minerals sourced or processed in China, including more finished goods like rare earth magnets that are produced there. China positioned the measures as necessary to prevent the “misuse of rare-earth materials in military and other sensitive sectors.”
• Hamas declared a deal to end the Gaza conflict after indirect talks with Israel in Egypt, as reported on Oct. 8 by AFP. The agreement includes ceasefire terms, withdrawal of Israeli forces, humanitarian aid access, and prisoner exchanges. Hamas urged US President Trump to ensure Israel adheres to the deal without delays or evasion.
• The Federal Reserve expressed concern over employment risks while remaining cautious on inflation, per the latest FOMC minutes. Most officials supported moving to a neutral rate, yet inflation pressures remained a concern. Many anticipate additional easing this year, with half predicting two more cuts by 2025. Recently, the Fed cut rates by 25bps to 4.00%-4.25%, the first since December.
• Germany's industrial production fell by 4.3% in August, the largest drop since March 2022, driven by declines in automotive (-18.5%) and other key sectors. This exceeded expectations of a 1% decline. On an annual basis, output decreased 3.9%, reversing a 1.5% gain from the previous year.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

US Government data are impacted by shutdowns and are likely to be delayed

1130 – ECB Meeting Minutes
1200 – Mexico Sep. CPI
1230 – US Fed Chair Powell to speak – no Q&A
1235 – US Fed Board of Governor member Bowman to speak
1430 – EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change
1700 – US Treasury to auction 30-year T-bonds
2200 – Australia RBA’s Bullock and others to testify

Earnings events

• Today: Pepsico, Tata Consultancy Services, Delta
• Friday: Tryg

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: S&P 500 +0.6% to a record and Nasdaq 100 +1.2%, while Russell 2000 +1.0% as September Fed minutes signalled openness to more 2025 cuts. Nvidia +2.2% after Jensen Huang said Blackwell demand is “really, really” high; AMD +11.4% on AI optimism, up 40.8% over three sessions; Oracle +1.5% rebounded; ASML fell1.4% as Washington scrutiny of China chip tools intensified. Cisco unveiled a new Silicon One part to link AI data centres, targeting Broadcom’s turf. Focus turns to next data prints and earnings.
• Europe: DAX +0.9% to 24,597 and STOXX 600 +0.8% as Brussels moved to halve tariff-free steel import quotas and apply a 50% levy on excess volumes, lifting steelmakers and banks despite a 4.3% slump in German industrial output and French political noise. BMW down more than 8% on a profit warning and higher input-cost concerns; ArcelorMittal +6.5% on the EU plan. FTSE 100 +0.7% as miners and financials steadied the tape.
• Asia: Tone mixed into China’s restart. Hang Seng −0.5% to 26,829, with Hang Seng Tech −0.6%; Alibaba −1.6% and Baidu −3.0% on fresh U.S. export-control risk, while gold miners rallied with bullion at records. Japan’s Nikkei 225 −0.5% on the prior close as chip sentiment stayed cautious. Mainland exchanges reopen today after Golden Week; attention shifts to the Oct 20–23 Party plenum on the 15th Five-Year Plan. The World Bank upgraded 2025 China growth forecast to 4.8% from 4%, offering a slight relief.

Volatility

• Volatility remains subdued despite rising single-stock dispersion. The VIX fell 5.5% to 16.3, while short-term measures (VIX1D 9.99, VIX9D 13.17) also eased, reflecting calm headline risk ahead of today’s Powell speech and 30-year bond auction. Futures near 18 show modest caution as earnings season begins. Dealers stay long gamma, containing index swings between SPX 6700–6800; elevated dispersion and selective call-skew flips hint at positioning for potential upside surprises.
• Implied daily SPX move: ±22 points (≈0.33%).

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets pause after Bitcoin’s record run. BTC trades near $122k (-1.1%) and ETH around $4,440 (-1.9%), with alt-coins mixed. Flows remain robust: US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1–1.2 B inflows led by IBIT (+1.4%), while ETHA (+0.8%) stays active with tight spreads. Analysts debate whether Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle still applies; some foresee a short-term pullback, others extended gains supported by easier Fed policy and ETF demand.
• Speculative energy persists across smaller tokens and blockchain equities like COIN (+3.1%), CIFR (+11.8%), and CLSK (+5.7%), reflecting continued institutional participation.

Fixed Income

• US treasury yields edged very slightly higher yesterday amidst a strong rebound in risk sentiment and a middle-of-the-road US Treasury auction of 10-year notes.
• Japanese Government Bond yields were almost unchanged along much of the yield curve as newly elected LDP leader Takaichi struggles to put together a coalition for a new government.
• The France-Germany 10-year sovereign yield spread eased a few basis points lower yesterday to 84 basis points in anticipation that French President Macron’s last-ditch effort to put together a new government may succeed, with freshly resigned PM Lecornu suggesting a government could be formed by Friday on a new basis that could include scrapping or altering pension reforms agreed two years ago.
• US high yield bond spreads widened slightly, with the Bloomberg measure of the spread between high yield debt and US treasury yields widening two basis points to 273 basis points, the widest since September 10.

Commodities

• Gold found support near USD 4,000 after a four-day surge to USD 4,060 triggered profit-taking during the Asian session, which also marked the return of Chinese traders following their week-long holiday. Strong ETF inflows, momentum, and FOMO-driven buying have pushed prices into technically overbought territory, prompting some short-term caution. Attention now turns to silver, trading less than a dollar below its 2011 record high near USD 50.
• Crude oil retreated for the first time in five sessions as easing Middle East tensions—after Trump said Israel and Hamas had agreed on terms to release all Gaza hostages—coincided with a second consecutive weekly rise in US inventories. Both WTI and Brent remain range-bound amid expectations of an emerging surplus in the coming months, keeping upside potential limited for now.
• U.S. soybeans and corn rose on expectations of lower yields, while wheat firmed on short covering after a stronger dollar and rising global supplies had dragged prices to near five-year lows, though gains were capped by strong supply and a lack of fresh data amid the government shutdown. Overall, the grains sector remains the worst performing sector this year, down 7%.

Currencies

• The US dollar rally failed to extend late yesterday as the USDJPY rally stalled out after a 153.00 high yesterday as Japan’s new LDP leader Takaichi is facing tough coalition talks as she attempts to form a government., trading 152.60 this morning, while EURUSD failed to take out the 1.1600 level after posting a 1.1599 low, bouncing back to above 1.1640.
• China came back from its long holiday today with a stronger than expected yuan fix, taking USDCNH sharply lower to the 7.13 area after trading above 7.15 briefly late yesterday.

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