Quarterly Outlook
Q3 Investor Outlook: Beyond American shores – why diversification is your strongest ally
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
Investment Strategist
Klarna plans to sell 34.3 million shares at USD 35–37 each, implying a valuation of up to USD 14 billion. The stock will list in the USA on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) under the ticker KLAR.
If demand is strong, banks may sell additional shares for 30 days. Pricing is scheduled for the evening of 9 September 2025 (CET). If all goes to plan, the shares will be available to trade for investors on 10 September on the NYSE.
Founded in 2005, Klarna is Sweden’s buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) pioneer. It lets shoppers split purchases into instalments at checkout. It scaled across Europe and accelerated with the 2013–14 acquisition of SOFORT, Germany’s leading direct bank-transfer checkout.
The deal opened the DACH door, expanded reach to 14 countries and 43,000 merchants, and plugged Klarna into over half of German online shops, giving the combined group roughly 10% share of its addressed e-commerce payments market. A Swedish banking licence in 2017 widened Klarna’s remit; it now offers debit cards and deposit accounts.
What's setting the price
Two stories drive the range. First, a reset in value. From a USD 45 billion private peak in 2021 to about USD 14 billion at IPO. That clears the air and sets expectations. Second, profits. Growth is healthy, yet losses persist as credit provisions and share-based compensation (SBC) weigh.
Loss rates look steadier as the U.S. mix grows, but the credit cycle will decide the slope. Investors will test whether “operational profitability” turns into cleaner earnings. They will watch take rate (revenue per dollar of checkout), funding costs, and early returns from financing and ads. Regulation sits in the background and can change unit economics quickly. Deliver discipline on credit and SBC and the multiple can stretch; miss, and it compresses.
Pricing and debut: test demand quality at pricing on 9 September 2025. On 10 September, watch the open, liquidity, and close vs offer.
Unit economics: take rate (revenue per checkout dollar), credit-loss ratio, U.S. mix, and share-based pay (SBC) cadence in the first update.
Funding and regulation: deposit growth, capital buffer (CET1), and BNPL rule changes in the U.S., UK, and EU.
Klarna is a high-beta stock. That means it can swing more than the market. Profits can move sharply because small changes in sales or loss rates hit the bottom line hard. The upside case is simple: more users and merchants lower unit costs, while ads and longer repayment plans widen revenue per checkout.
Key risks are also clear. Credit losses can rise if the economy slows. Rules for “buy now, pay later” can change in the U.S., UK, or EU. Funding costs matter if rates stay high. Early trading can be choppy because the free float is small and banks can support trading for up to 30 days.
Klarna’s float tests a plain idea: growth is intact, profits must catch up. The drivers are scale and merchant reach; the risks are credit costs, funding, regulation, and dilution from stock-based pay. If take rate inches higher and loss ratios stay stable, the profitability path clears. If not, the multiple compresses.
The timeline is simple. Price on 9 September. Trade on 10 September. Then judge the first update for take rate, loss ratio, and SBC discipline. From here, execution—not promises—sets the price.