Market Quick Take – 30 January 2026

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US ended mixed as artificial intelligence spending fears hit tech, Europe slipped on earnings, Hong Kong rose on property relief.
• Volatility: Volatility muted, but options signal caution around near-term catalysts 
• Digital assets: Crypto weak as fed uncertainty and fading ETF demand pressure prices
• Currencies: USD rallies in anticipation of Warsh nomination. AUD weakens after recent surge.
• Commodities: Metals pull back after a volatile, record-setting week
• Fixed Income: US treasuries absorbing Warsh nomination anticipation – 10-year yields rise. Japan’s government bonds find support.
• Macro events: Germany CPI, Germany and Eurozone Q4 GDP estimates

Macro headlines

• US President Trump is set to announce that he is nominating former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair on Friday morning in Washington, according to widespread reporting in major media, citing unnamed sources. Kevin Warsh is considered far less controversial and less overtly dovish than some of the other options that have been circulated ahead of the announcement of Trump’s nomination. He somewhat famously resigned his position as Fed governor in disagreement over the use of unconventional monetary policy tools like quantitative easing. Equity markets took the news as negative for risk sentiment, while US treasury yields poked slightly higher at the long end of the curve as shorter yields remained anchored near recent levels.
• The US trade deficit widened in November to USD 56.8 billion – from their lowest level since 2009 - as imports rebounded and exports fell, with goods and services trade gap nearly doubling from the prior month.
• Japan's retail sales fell 0.9% year-on-year in December 2025, contrary to expectations. Sales dropped for clothing, fuel, non-store retailers, department stores, and food, while rising for other categories, autos, machinery, and cosmetics. Monthly sales experienced a 2.0% decrease, marking the first decline in four months.
• Japan's unemployment rate in December 2025 stayed at 2.6%, the highest since July 2024. Unemployment rose by 50,000, while employment and the labor force dropped by 50,000 each. The participation rate was 63.9%, and the jobs-to-applicants ratio increased to 1.19.
• Tokyo's core consumer prices rose 2% year-on-year in January 2026, down from December's 2.3% and below the expected 2.2%, marking the lowest since October 2024. Aligning with the BOJ's 2% target, it suggests caution on rate hikes. The policy rate reached 0.75% in December and remained unchanged in January.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

0900 – Eurozone 1-year and 3-year CPI expectations
0900 – Germany Q4 GDP estimate
0900 – Eurozone Q4 GDP estimate
1300 – Germany Flash Jan. CPI
1330 – US Dec. PPI
1445 – US Jan. Chicago PMI

Earnings events

• Today: ExxonMobil, Cheveron, American Express, Verizon, Regeneron
• Next week: Monday: Palantir, Disney; Tuesday: AMD, Merck, Pepsico, Amgen, Pfizer; Wednesday: Alphabet, Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Uber, Qualcomm, UBS, Boston Scientific, ARM Holdings; Thursday: Amazon.com, Shell, Linde, Unilver, KKR; Friday: Toyota, Philip Morris

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US equities ended mixed on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 0.1% at 6,969.01, the Dow up 0.1% at 49,071.56, and the Nasdaq down 0.7% at 23,685.12. Markets leaned away from expensive growth stocks as investors digested bigger capital spending for artificial intelligence (AI), led by Microsoft sliding 10.0% after flagging slower cloud growth alongside heavier AI investment. Meta jumped 10.4% on a stronger revenue outlook, while Caterpillar rose 3.4% after an earnings beat and Southwest Airlines surged 18.7% on a profit outlook upgrade. After the bell, Apple was up 0.7% as its quarter beat estimates on stronger iPhone sales, keeping the next inflation print and guidance in sharp focus.
• Europe: European stocks fell on Thursday, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.7% at 5,891.95 and the STOXX 600 off 0.2% at 607.14 as earnings stayed in focus. SAP sank 16.0% after cloud revenue and backlog signals disappointed, and Nokia slid 9.4% on a cautious 2026 profit outlook and leadership news. Offsetting some of the drag, ABB rallied 8.5% on strong orders and results, while Roche gained 2.7% after reporting 5% profit growth despite currency headwinds. Investors now looked to the next wave of tech and healthcare results for clues on demand and pricing power.
• Asia: Asian markets were mixed, as Hong Kong kept leading while China policy headlines helped property shares. The Hang Seng rose 0.5% to 27,968.09, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 was flat (+0.0%) at 53,375.60, South Korea’s Kospi rose 1.0% to 5,221.25, and China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.2% to 4,157.98. In Hong Kong, Longfor climbed 5.8%, China Overseas Land gained 6.1% and China Resources Land rose 4.6% after China eased reporting tied to developers’ debt limits, while AIA added 2.2% as local rates stayed at 4.0%. Sands China fell 7.2% on weaker profitability, and the next test was whether policy support translated into firmer home sales and credit conditions.

Volatility

• Market volatility remains contained on the surface, but investors are clearly staying alert. The VIX closed at 16.88, while short-dated measures such as VIX1D (13.72) and VIX9D (15.22) stayed relatively elevated, signalling sensitivity to near-term headlines rather than outright complacency. With month-end approaching, attention is focused on macro data that could shift rate expectations, including German GDP and CPI releases and the US PPI and Chicago PMI later today. Geopolitical risks, particularly around Iran and energy markets, continue to add a background layer of uncertainty.
• Based on options pricing, the S&P 500 is currently implying a move of roughly ±40 points (around ±0.6%) into this week’s 30 January expiry.
• For today’s expiry, the options market shows a clear downside skew, with at-the-money puts priced noticeably richer than calls, indicating that investors are still willing to pay for protection against short-term drawdowns.

Digital Assets

• Digital assets traded firmly in risk-off mode. Bitcoin slipped to around $82,650 and ether fell to roughly $2,730, with weakness extending across major altcoins such as solana and xrp. The tone suggests that crypto continues to behave like a liquidity-sensitive risk asset, reacting to shifts in interest-rate expectations and broader macro uncertainty. Investor flows reinforced that message: the latest reported data showed a sizable outflow from IBIT (around $318m) and a smaller but still negative flow from ETHA (around $55m).
• Rather than buying the dip, investors appear to be reducing exposure or staying on the sidelines, waiting for clearer signals on rates, regulation, and global risk sentiment.

Fixed Income

• US treasuries absorbed stories that Kevin Warsh is set to become Trump’s Fed Chair nominee with modest volatility, with the benchmark 2-year treasury yield rising about a basis point to 3.57% after a dip in yield yesterday partly driven by volatile equity markets. Longer yields rose more, with the 10-year benchmark yield rising three basis points and close to 4.27%, two basis points short of the highest close since September near 4.29%.
• Japan’s government bond yield curve bull steepened, as short yields fell and longs yields did likewise, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield down three basis points to near 1.23% and the benchmark 10-year yield declining two basis points to 2.24%. This came after January Tokyo CPI data all came in south of expectations, with the core, exFood and Energy number at 2.4% yoY vs. 2.6% expected and 2.6% in December.

Commodities

• Crude oil and the broader energy sector are heading for strong back-to-back weekly gains. A US winter storm lifted natural gas prices last week, while renewed concerns about a potential US attack on Iran raised fears of Middle East supply disruptions, briefly pushing Brent back above USD 70. Beyond a volatile geopolitical risk premium that is likely to ebb and flow, the sector has also benefitted from broad-based investor demand for commodities.
• Key precious and industrial metals are trading lower after a week of frenzied activity which on Thursday saw gold, silver, and copper all hit fresh record highs, before slumping amid broader risk-off signals and a firmer dollar. The latter followed speculation that Trump may nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, a candidate viewed as more hawkish than other contenders.
• Copper surged 11% to a record high of USD 6.58 per pound in New York before retreating sharply below USD 6. While longer-term macro conditions remain supportive, several near-term micro drivers do not justify higher prices at this stage, increasing the risk of sharp pullbacks given the speculative nature of the latest surge.
• Strong monthly gains in gold and silver have also led to increasingly difficult trading conditions. Market makers have grown reluctant to take and hold risk, resulting in thinner liquidity and elevated volatility. On Thursday, this was evident as gold traded in a near USD 500 range and silver in a USD 15 range, before both metals ended the session close to where they began.
• Overall, the Bloomberg Commodity Index is heading for a 12% monthly gain, a return exceeded only three times in the past 45 years, most recently in 2009. The rally has been broad-based, led by precious metals and energy, with the softs sector the only notable laggard.

Currencies

• The US dollar strengthened on widespread anticipation of Trump appointing Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair. Warsh is seen as a less controversial pick than some of the other nominees and less overtly dovish than some of the other potential Trump picks, with a background as a Fed governor and therefore an insider’s knowledge of the institution. EURUSD tested 1.1900 support in Asia’s Friday session shortly after the story circulated of the likely Warsh nomination. USDJPY rose toward 154.00+ resistance.
• The recent outperformance in the Australian dollar reversed, likely in part on wobbly global risk sentiment and intense volatility in metals prices. AUDUSD backed down below 0.7000 in Asia’s Friday session and AUDNZD reversed course, trading back at 1.1575 after Thursday’s peak of 1.1647. New Zealand reported a strong surge in consumer confidence in January, as the survey index hit its highest level since early 2021.
• NOK trades a bit like an FX proxy of global oil prices as yesterday’s aggressive extension higher coincided with a rally in global crude oil benchmarks on geopolitical concerns linked to Iran before the rally was partially reversed as crude oil likewise sold off. EURNOK hit a low of 11.361 before bouncind to above 11.43 in Asia’s Friday session.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.