Market Quick Take – 26 November 2025

Market drivers and catalysts

• Equities: US and European stocks extended a Fed rate cut rebound as AI leaders diverged, Asia tracked Wall Street with China firmer.
• Volatility: VIX lower – calmer tone, macro data focus, Fed uncertainty, SPX ±50pt
• Digital Assets: BTC steady near 87–88k, IBIT inflows, ETHA stabilising, alt-coins mixed
• Fixed Income: US treasury yields push lower on weak US data. Gilts yields drop ahead of today’s UK budget announcement
• Currencies: USD and JPY weaker, sterling nervous after firming pre-budget announcement today, NZD surges on RBNZ
• Commodities: Gold and silver nudge higher. Oil bounces from latest test of recent lows
• Macro events: UK Budget Announcement, US Weekly Jobless Claims, US Fed Beige Book

Macro headlines

• Kevin Hassett is reportedly the leading candidate for Fed Chair when Jerome Powell’s term expires next May, according to Bloomberg sources. Hassett is expected to align with Trump's interest rate cutting approach. However, Trump's decisions often change unexpectedly, so the nomination is not confirmed until publicly announced.
• US retail sales increased by 0.2% in September 2025, the smallest rise in four months and below the 0.4% forecast. Notable increases were at miscellaneous store retailers (2.9%) and gasoline stations (2%). Declines occurred in sporting goods (-2.5%), clothing (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.5%). Sales, excluding key sectors for GDP calculation, fell 0.1% versus a 0.6% rise in August.
• US producer prices rose 0.3% in September 2025, rebounding from a 0.1% drop in August and meeting market expectations. Food prices increased by 1.1%, driven by higher meat costs, while energy prices rose 3.5%, boosting goods inflation to 0.9%, the highest in over a year. Service prices remained unchanged. Annual producer price inflation held steady at 2.7%.
• US private employers cut 13,500 jobs weekly in the four weeks to November 8, 2025, up from a 2,500 decline earlier, per ADP Research. Job losses accelerated due to major cuts by companies like Amazon and Target. The November employment report is set for December 3 release.
• US consumer confidence weakened in November amid rising labour‑market and economic concerns, with expectations at their lowest since April and present conditions at a more than one‑year low, while the share expecting income gains over the next six months fell to the lowest since February 2023 and views on current and future business conditions deteriorated.

Macro calendar highlights (times in GMT)

1230 – UK Budget Announcement
1330 – US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
1330 – US Sep. Durable Goods Orders
1445 – US Nov. Chicago PMI
1900 – US Fed Beige Book

Earnings this week

• Today: Deere and company

For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar.

Equities

• USA: US stocks rose again, with the S&P 500 up 0.9%, the Dow gaining 1.4% (around 700 points) and the Nasdaq 0.7% as weaker US data reinforced expectations of a December Fed rate cut and pulled Treasury yields lower. Communication services and health care led gains while AI names diverged: Alphabet added about 1.5% and Meta jumped 3.8% on optimism around potential AI chip and cloud deals, but Nvidia fell 2.6% and AMD lost 4.1% as investors reassessed rich valuations and competition from custom accelerators. JPMorgan’s call for a softer dollar next year on easier US policy supported broader risk appetite, with attention now turning to upcoming inflation and jobs data that could still sway the Fed’s timing.
• Europe: European equities advanced, with the STOXX 50 up about 0.8% and the STOXX 600 0.9% as softer US data boosted Fed rate cut bets and pulled bond yields lower. Banks outperformed, helped by the prospect of easier global policy and solid capital return stories, with Société Générale and UniCredit both gaining more than 2% and ABN AMRO jumping around 6.5% after outlining job cuts to lift profitability. At the other end, RWE and SAP slipped roughly 1% while Beazley sank about 9% after trimming its premium growth outlook, even as Kingfisher rallied around 6% on another profit guidance upgrade, and investors now watch eurozone inflation data and ECB communication for firmer signs that easing is on the way.
• Asia: Asian markets were firmer, with the Hang Seng up 1% and China’s CSI 300 rising too as Wall Street’s rebound and growing Fed rate cut hopes lifted risk appetite, while Japan’s Nikkei slipped 0.9% on profit-taking. In Hong Kong and the mainland, tech and AI names led: Xiaomi climbed about 5% as founder share buying and fresh buybacks signaled confidence, and Suzhou Novosense jumped around 5% on a new repurchase plan. Sentiment toward China also improved after a Trump-Xi call hinting at better Sino-US ties and on expectations that the People’s Bank of China’s planned 1 trillion yuan medium-term lending facility will add liquidity, even as Alibaba’s US shares slipped 2.3% after earnings highlighted soft free cash flow and kept scrutiny on internet balance sheets.

Volatility

• Volatility eased further on Tuesday, with the VIX slipping toward the high-18s as equity markets continued to stabilise. Short-dated indicators (VIX1D, VIX9D) also retreated sharply, suggesting investors are becoming less worried about sudden headline shocks. The broader backdrop remains shaped by today’s US data releases — durable goods orders, jobless claims, and new-home sales — which will help set expectations ahead of the key December 9–10 Federal Reserve meeting. Policy uncertainty persists, however, as markets weigh speculation that President Trump may nominate a new Fed chair before Christmas.
• For long-term investors, the tone is far calmer than last week, with volatility now drifting rather than spiking. Index options show steady demand for protection, but nothing that signals market stress.
• Expected SPX move (based on options pricing): about ±50 points, or roughly 0.7%, for the remainder of this week.
• Skew indicator (today’s expiry): broadly neutral — only a modest preference for downside puts over comparable calls.

Digital Assets

• Crypto markets are quiet but steadier, with bitcoin hovering around 87–88k and showing little movement over the past day. The earlier wave of selling appears to have exhausted itself, and sentiment is now guided mainly by rate-cut expectations and the growing discussion around a potential new Fed chair — both of which influence risk appetite across digital assets.
• Flows into crypto ETFs improved again: IBIT saw another day of net inflows, helping to rebuild confidence after November’s heavier redemptions. ETHA also recorded small net inflows, keeping ethereum supported just below 3,000 USD. Alt-coins are mixed but off last week’s lows: solana trades near 140 USD, XRP around 2.20 USD, and dogecoin near 0.15 USD.
• Regulatory developments remain in focus too, with the CFTC advancing new initiatives and global regulators (notably in the UAE) broadening their oversight of DeFi and Web3 — themes long-term investors increasingly pay attention to.

Fixed Income

• US Treasuries rallied further on weak US macro data, including a soft weekly ADP payrolls number and especially the cratering consumer confidence reading for November. The benchmark US 2-year treasury yield fell as low as 3.45%, down a few basis points before rebounding slightly, while the benchmark 10-year yield tested the waters below 4.0% for the first time since late October before rebounding to just above 4.0% overnight.
• Japanese government bonds came under additional pressure, with the benchmark 2-year JGB yield eyeing another high close for the post-GFC cycle above 0.97%, while the 10-year benchmark also nudged slightly higher.
• UK Gilt yields dropped ahead of today’s critical UK Budget Announcement, with the 10-year Gilt benchmark four basis points lower to 4.49%.

Commodities

• Gold and silver prices nudged slightly higher yesterday and tried higher still overnight, with gold faltering just below trendline resistance near 4,175, while silver tested the waters briefly above 52.0 overnight, short of the local resistance level near 52.46.
• Oil prices bounced from test of the recent lows, ending the day relatively unchanged.

Currencies

• The US dollar traded to the weak side, with EURUSD creeping back higher toward 1.1600 overnight, falling a bit short, as weak US data weighed and odds of a December FOMC rate cut rose.
• Sterling firmed to near key levels ahead of today’s budget announcement, with GBPUSD testing the 1.3216 local range resistance and EURGBP testing support in the 0.8770 area before bouncing.
• The JPY sold off yet again after its recent modest consolidation.
• NZD firmed sharply on the RBNZ meeting, which was seen as a “hawkish cut” as the bank forecast no further cuts through 2026, making this the last cut for the cycle until further notice.  NZDUSD surged over a percent to 0.5686 from lows below 0.5600 yesterday, while AUDNZD also fell sharply to the low 1.1400’s at one point despite the hotter than expected Australia CPI seeing AUD firming elsewhere ahead of the RBNZ decision.

For a global look at markets – go to Inspiration.