Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
When a company makes a profit, sometimes they will share those profits with shareholders. By being awarded dividends, you as an investor are also reaping the rewards of a company's profitability.
Dividends are cash or stock rewards paid to investors, usually out of company profits. You can almost think of it as a gift, meaning companies are under no obligation to hand out dividends, and most don't.
But look carefully at that gift. The company might be handing shareholders a cut of the profits because it's in a mature business that isn't growing fast, such as a utility. On the other hand, on-the-rise companies (known as growth stocks) prefer to reinvest their profits into company expansion. And if the company's stock price is surging, this strategy makes more sense.
That doesn't mean dividend stocks are a bad investment—the company might be showing solid profits—but it could mean its stock price is aiming more toward the horizon than the moon. Such companies often attract investors with the promise of regular quarterly dividends, which can really boost their portfolios when the stock market is stuck in a rut.
By now you may be wondering which is better: slow-and-steady dividend stocks, or speedy growth stocks. As is so often the answer in investing, you may want to cover your bets by owning a mix of both.
You might be getting the idea that dividends are a "safe" investment that won't make you as rich as buying hot tech stocks. And that may be true, assuming you cashed out your dividends every quarter and spent the money on vacations.
In reality, most shareholders reinvest their dividends back into the company. That's where dividends pay off over time.
Berkshire Hathaway, the investment company run by Warren Buffett, is a committed buy-and-hold dividend investor. According to recent Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings, Berkshire Hathaway is projected to earn $4.6 billion in dividends alone in 2019. Most of that is from about 30 stocks the company has owned for decades.
Granted, you likely don't have billions to invest. But let's say you had invested $10,000 in Walmart stock in 1995. Today, with dividends reinvested, those holdings would be worth about $111,000. Without dividend reinvestment, you'd have just $93,000. An $18,000 bump on a $10,000 investment—not bad indeed.
You can tell a lot about a company by its dividend policy. For starters, companies that pay dividends are likely profitable, since dividends need to come from somewhere. And they probably have stable, disciplined management because those payments must be made, on time. Investors can also compare dividends between companies in the same industry, to get an idea of how each is doing.
Experts employ a lot of complex formulas to divine the meaning behind dividends. One basic measure is dividend yield, which is the dividend income per share divided by the share price. A low yield versus competitors could mean the company is in trouble. If similar companies are paying out better dividends, it makes you wonder what's going on. But it could also mean the company's share price is too high.
Dividends affect stock price in several ways. In the short term, share prices often drop when a dividend is distributed. New investors aren't getting any of that windfall, and they understandably don't want to pay a premium for somebody else's recent good fortune.
"More seriously, companies that cut their dividends could be signaling trouble."
They might be anticipating weak sales, or less profit due to higher operating costs, or management turnover -- any of which could cause a significant stock drop. One well-noted example is General Electric. For several years it had been no secret that the company was struggling significantly. So while it wasn't a shock when GE slashed its dividend from 12 cents per share to a single penny late in 2018, the move certainly confirmed those struggles weren't getting better.
This cut came just a year after GE's dividend dropped from 24 cents to 12 cents per share. All of this correlated closely to GE's stock performance. Late in 2018, amid ongoing talk of massive restructuring, its stock fell below $7 per share, compared to nearly $60 in the early 2000s.
Conversely, a stock can drop if investors think a company is paying out too much of its profit in dividends, which could leave less cash for investing in new businesses.
But slow and steady prevails often enough that dividend stocks deserve a place in your portfolio. What works for Warren Buffett can work for you, too.
Disclaimer
The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.
Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-gb/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)