MACRO 2 minutes to read

A first glance at the US shutdown's economic impact

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  The University of Michigan Index is one of the key data releases unaffected by the US government shutdown, and the latest results point to a US economy dealing with multiple bearish factors.


The University of Michigan Index is out. Due to the partial government shutdown, it is one of the few glimpses that investors can have about the state of the US economy and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year. As widely expected, the last update is ugly. The consumer index fell to 90.7 in January versus 98.3 in December, well below the consensus of 96.8. The index was affected by a combination of negative factors: the shutdown, financial market turmoil, higher tariffs and the global economic slowdown.

Despite this sharp drop, it remains at a very elevated level which is consistent with well-oriented spending growth in coming months. It is likely that the Conference Board Consumer confidence index that is expected to be released on January 29 will follow the same downward trend.

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