A first glance at the US shutdown's economic impact

A first glance at the US shutdown's economic impact

Macro 2 minutes to read

Christopher Dembik

Head of Macro Analysis

Summary: The University of Michigan Index is one of the key data releases unaffected by the US government shutdown, and the latest results point to a US economy dealing with multiple bearish factors.

The University of Michigan Index is out. Due to the partial government shutdown, it is one of the few glimpses that investors can have about the state of the US economy and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year. As widely expected, the last update is ugly. The consumer index fell to 90.7 in January versus 98.3 in December, well below the consensus of 96.8. The index was affected by a combination of negative factors: the shutdown, financial market turmoil, higher tariffs and the global economic slowdown.

Despite this sharp drop, it remains at a very elevated level which is consistent with well-oriented spending growth in coming months. It is likely that the Conference Board Consumer confidence index that is expected to be released on January 29 will follow the same downward trend.

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A first glance at the US shutdown's economic impact

Christopher Dembik

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Latest Market Insights

Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy

Billionaire coalition creates trillion-dollar Manhattan Project for energy

French President Macron resigns

Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandate

EU Army forces EU down path to full union

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OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve asset

USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial system

Tax haven ban kills private equity

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