Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Tariff war impacts prices, sentiment
Michael McKenna
Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank
Last week's central bank-driven volatility has been followed by an increasingly intense wave of tariff threats as China looks to hit US 'red states' (Republican voters) with soybeans, corn, oil, gasoline, coal, and liquid natural gas all potential targets.
"The trade war theme is risk-negative and USD-positive," says Saxo Bank Head of Forex Strategy John Hardy, who adds that the Japanese yen is not seeing its customary risk-off bid, most likely due to the country's enormous current account surplus.
"Emerging markets in Asia have been hardest hit with economies tied to Chinese imports [getting the worst of it]," says Hardy. According to Saxo Bank Head of Equity Strategy Peter Garnry, EM equities closed Friday just above their May lows and could head further still on a break of this support level.
"In general we see stocks off to a weak start this week on the new tariffs," says Garnry, adding that he is keeping one eye on the long-rumoured tariffs by the US against the European auto industry.
Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen reports that commodity prices are lower on the dollar strength and trade concerns, with silver putting in a particularly noteworthy performance last week.
"Silver had a crazy week with an eight-fold increase in bullish fund bets Tuesday giving way to the largest sell-off in over 18 months Friday. We also saw gold break below key support at $1,286/oz while oil traded lower in response to the aforementioned themes as well as the upcoming Opec meeting in Vienna.
The ambient volatility is also impacting bond markets, which many investors are watching closely for signs of an impending downturn across asset classes. According to Saxo fixed income specialist Althea Spinozzi, the real problem can be seen in the US yield curve, which is at its flattest in 100 years.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy