Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Euro rallies but Italy remains a potential flashpoint
Clare MacCarthy
Senior Editor, Saxo Bank Group
The fireworks and fear that lashed markets over the Italian political crisis have ebbed overnight and the euro has staged a strong comeback, especially against the US dollar. However, Italy still does not have a government and though the populist/anti-EU parties have apparently renewed their attempt to form an administration, the imposition of a technocrat prime minister (and consequently, another election) remains a possibility. We may get the answer to all that today.
"The market action is suggesting in a lot of ways that risk from the Italian situation, in tactical terms, seems to be fading. We saw a pretty decent rebound in the euro and a decent improvement in credit spreads for Italy, and across markets we saw a recovery in risk appetite," says John J Hardy, Saxo’s Head of Forex Strategy.
Besides the easing of Italian fears, which has boosted the euro, the US dollar is labouring under the latest FOMC minutes and the implication that the Fed may reconsider its pace of monetary policy tightening.
Elsewhere, a relief rally was also apparent in equities, both in Asia overnight and in Europe when the morning session opened. In commodities, Brent crude oil has retraced half of its recent sharp losses, helped by dollar weakness and a new belief that an output increase by Russia/Opec would only stabilise the price, not send it lower.
Quarterly Outlook
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
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Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy