US president Donald Trump’s May 12 decision on whether to retain, amend or ditch the multilateral deal that allows Iran trade its oil internationally, will be the dominant force in commodity markets during the week ahead.
“Crude oil’s geopolitical risk premium continues to build, with traders gearing up for a worst-case scenario ahead of Trump’s call on Iran. Stepping away from the 2015 nuclear deal risks raising Middle East tensions (US, Saudi Arabia and Israel vs Iran, Russia (& China)) while curbing production from Opec’s third-biggest producer,” says Ole Hansen, Saxo’s head of commodity strategy.
Traders are also on watch for any developments in the US-China trade relationship after a Beijing visit last week by treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin produced nothing of substance. “On top of this we have a rising dollar, China trade data on Tuesday, and a $73bn US bond auction (Tues-Thur),” Hansen notes.
Equities, meanwhile, are in a cheerful mood with Asian and European bourses taking their cue from Friday’s strong close on Wall Street. That positive finish, says Peter Garnry, Saxo’s head of equity strategy, was inspired by an in-line nonfarm payrolls report which markets interpreted as “a Goldilocks scenario of robust growth with little wage inflation.” That said, Garnry says that there remain many reasons to be cautions and defensive on equities, not least the stronger dollar “which is toxic for emerging markets”.
Outrageous Predictions 2023: The War Economy
- The constantly growing global need for energy drives the world's richest to huddle up and launch a R&D project in a size the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the US the first atomic bomb.
French President Macron resignsThe political stalemate in France and the rise of Marie Le Pen following the 2022 elections corners President Macron, forcing him to give up on politics and resign from his position. At least for now.
Gold rockets to USD 3,000 as central banks fail on inflation mandateAs markets and central banks realise that the idea that inflation is transitory is wrong, and that prices will remain higher for longer, gold is sent through the roof, hitting a price tag of USD 3,000
EU Army forces EU down path to full unionWith continued challenges in the region and a US military that isn't aggressively enacting its former role as global policeman, the European Union agrees to create its own armed forces, bringing the whole region closer.
A country agrees to ban all meat production by 2030In an effort to become one of the global leaders on the path to net-zero emissions, one country decides to not only put a heavy tax on meat, but to ban domestic production entirely.
UK holds UnBrexit referendumFollowing a recession and domestic pressure, the United Kingdom is thrown into political turmoil that will end with a vote to wind back Brexit.
Widespread price controls are introduced to cap official inflationHistory tells us that with the war economy comes rationing and price controls. And this time is no different, as policymakers introduce strict price controls that lead to a range of unintended consequences.
OPEC+ & Chindia walk out of the IMF, agree to trade with new reserve assetSanctions against Russia have caused widespread turmoil due to US Dollar moves in countries across the globe that don't consider the US an ally. To relieve themselves from this, they leave the IMF and create a new reserve asset.
USDJPY fixed to the USD at 200 as Japan overhauls financial systemFollowing the challenges that faced the Japanese Yen in 2022, the Bank of Japan attempts to keep the currency from sliding. Unsuccessful on the long-term, Japan will launch a reset of its entire financial system.
Tax haven ban kills private equityWith the war economy comes an increased focus on national interests and sovereign nations' ability to assert themselves. In that regard, the OECD countries turn their attention on tax havens and pull the big guns out, banning them altogether.
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