Quarterly Outlook
Equity outlook: The high cost of global fragmentation for US portfolios
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Access both platforms from your single Saxo account.
NFP sees average hourly earnings spike
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
The US nonfarm payrolls report for August showed a bigger than expected earnings jump, with the market focusing on the spike in average hourly earnings after a number of months of no pick-up in wage inflation. The August data showed a +0.4% month-on-month rise in the average hourly earnings data series and an annual increase of +2.9%, versus +0.2%/+2.7% expected, respectively.
That annual increase is the highest for the cycle and the highest since 2009, and FX traders are taking notice, bidding up the US dollar in kneejerk fashion in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to continue hiking rates at coming meetings.
The payrolls data look to be largely ignored (+200,000, so slightly more than consensus expectations but revisions of prior two months were -50,000) and the market also appears to be ignoring a rather weak Household Survey (though it has a volatile history), which saw the August unemployment rate steady at 3.9% even with a drop of 0.2% in the participation rate.
That annual increase is the highest for the cycle and the highest since 2009, and FX traders are taking notice, bidding up the US dollar in kneejerk fashion in anticipation that the Federal Reserve will have no choice but to continue hiking rates at coming meetings.
The payrolls data look to be largely ignored (+200,000, so slightly more than consensus expectations but revisions of prior two months were -50,000) and the market also appears to be ignoring a rather weak Household Survey (though it has a volatile history), which saw the August unemployment rate steady at 3.9% even with a drop of 0.2% in the participation rate.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Commodities rally despite global uncertainty
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Upending the global order at blinding speed
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
We are witnessing a once-in-a-lifetime shredding of the global order. As the new order takes shape, ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Asset allocation outlook: From Magnificent 7 to Magnificent 2,645—diversification matters, now more than ever
Jacob Falkencrone
Global Head of Investment Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy