Macro Dragon: China Fri GDP = Focus Global Recession

Macro 2 minutes to read

Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Bank Group

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.


(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: China Fri GDP = Focus on Global Recession

Folks as a pin going forward during this turbulent times, let us please remember:

The Covid-19 crisis with all its challenges, stress, chaos & opportunities will also eventually pass. What defines humanity & ourselves as individuals is how we both individually & collectively act under adversity. Think of how you want to look back over this period, doing your part to keep your family healthy, society healthy & functioning. Keeping a cool head, when others are losing theirs, maintaining an objective list of positive aspects & negative aspects of the policy responses & economic shock the world is / could go through. And lastly gratitude, sympathy & empathy for one another. Parts of Asia got / are getting through this & so too shall the RoW.

The one big positive from all this, is it reminds us we are all One. Plus we are not at the top of the food chain. Covid-19 does not care if you are rich, poor, what your ethnicity & skin color are, what passport/s you hold, nor what you age or profession is. Our greatest achievements are almost always those that we collectively do with others & sometimes as in this case, potentially as species.

Lastly keep your mind open to growth & opportunities.

 

Top of Mind…

  • SPX 2783 -2.20%, VIX 40.84 +8.2%. Worth noting Euro Stoxx banks -7% o/n
  • USTS 139.16 +0.68%, with yields at 0.6316% - remember the anthem!
  • Oil 20.21 -1.2% barely go back over 20, made new lows of 19.20
  • Gold 1716 -0.58% 3rd consecutive close above key 1700/1703) - remember the anthem!
  • Too early to read anything on the risk-off, i.e. we are still well off the lows & its really weather or not SPX closes significantly above or below the key 2790 fibo 50% lvl
  •  Tmr will see China’s GDP – which is  always a historical number, what it should do however is focus on the upcoming GDP & still currently underdoing slowdown out of Europe & the US – will be very interesting to see just how well priced the global economic slowdown is on assets. Again KVP continues to be a piglet in regards to structural longs allocation to US duration & gold
  • Focus today will be jobs data out of Aus, as well sa jobless claims out of the US where 5.4m is expected  - so far all the beats to the upside (i.e. bad in an indicator like this) have sparked nothing but bullishness, would be interesting to see what would happen if we got like 8-10m figure… (taking us to 24-26m in 4wks, remember in the GFC it took us two full years to get to c. 10m jobs lost)
  • Europe will see final German CPI, as well as the blocks industrial production. CA will have ADP & mfg. Sales data
  • Lastly do watch out for the Fed Williams who will be speaking c. 03:00 SGT time, we’ve already had one of the Fed banks saying they don’t see a V-shaped recovery

 

-

We could continue to be in a gang buster period of volatility both to the up & down side until at least mid-Apr to back-end of May. Some, time decay is needed in the system, both from a Covid-19 spread (past peak velocity upwards), even bigger & even better government / fiscal / monetary policy response, to overall heads of governments giving this the 2nd & 3rd order consequences thinking that it needs. This to shall pass. Keep you minds & hearts open.  

Key thing that KVP is trying to figure out is, how much of the economic fall-out & massive unemployment is correctly priced in – seems ludicrous to run on a V-shaped economic recovery across all sectors.

Good luck to everyone out there, be nimble & position accordingly.  


Namaste,

KVP

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