Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed... Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed... Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed...

Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, Long WKDs, BoJ & Fed...

Macro 2 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon: Week #18 - Month End, Final PMIs, BoJ, Fed, ECB & Long Wkds... 


Top of Mind…


  • This week is going to be dominated by finals PMIs, including ISM mfg. figures out of the US, before culminating in a 1 May public holiday for most of the world (ex US, CA, AU, NZ)
  • We still get continued focus on US earnings, with a lot of big names due this wk including Amazing which has been making all time highs & is now valued at $1.2 trillion
  • Holidays: NZ out today, JP out Wed, most mkts shut on Fri…
  • Economic data – a lot on, does it matter? It does not matter until it matters… so far equities continue to live in a hype world of Fed/Treasury wall street bailouts & complete ignorance on the fact that we are not getting back to a Jan 2020 world, in 6months let along 1-2 months. This is not solely a 1-2Q drag… there are potential ripples here that can cascade epic-ally
  • US: Trade Balance, Whole Sale Inventories, CB Consumer Confidence, 1st cut on 1Q GDP print -3.9%e 2.1%p, Pending Oil Sales, Wed is of course Crude Oil Inventories where we are likely to see ATHs again post the 19.2 from two weeks back. Obviously Thu is jobless claims that could take us to +30m jobless Americans in just 7wks – thats c. 20% of labor force & likely directly affects +100m Americans (the families of the 30m) & indirectly affects the rest of the 330m – i.e. are you going to go out spending right, left & center when so far 1 in 6 Americans workers are out of a job. We also get core PCE, personal income, Chicago PMI, Final Mfg. PMI & ISM Mfg. PMI.    
  • CH: Mfg. PMI 51.0e 52.0p, Non-Mfg. PMI 52.8e 52.3p
  • EZ: Flash CPI, Flash GDP -3.3%e +1.0%p, Unemployment Rate,
  • JP: Unemployment claims, BoJ Core CPI, Retail Sales, Final Mfg. PMI
  • Central banks: We got the BoJ out this morning Asia – no key takeaways from KVP, at the end of the day we know central banks are going to be the doctors that will keep pumping unlimited morphine into the body of the economy, no matter how each successive hit gets weaker & weaker. So whether or not they formally announce they are all in – they always were… interestingly enough yen is strengthening off the back of this.

One last point, BoJ / Japan set the bell curve of where debt lvls & central bank BS use is going… they have finished the race…. & KVP can see the USDJPY well south of 100, easily in 3-9months. Just take a step back, we have been around these 107-108 lvls, even with the epic bear squeeze moves in US equites & the dollar still being so strongly bid (imagine when DXY finally breaks?)…. There is likely big trade with stops around 110 & profit targets at a touch higher than 105, then 103, then 100 & save that last clip for braging rights – Dragon’s rule on this, slide your stop loss towards each successive lvl. Also FX vol is lower than morale in a Covid-19 lockdown.

We also have the FOMC this wed (early Thu Asia) where we are likely to see some questions in regards to negative rates, as well as the wall street over Main Street.

Last & most likely least, ECB on Thu - unless of course, they try to come to the rescue of the euro-zone again, given the subpar performance of all the political bobble-heads last wk.

Generally speaking from KVP’s side, the actual central bank meeting are less relevant now than Pre-Covid19… i.e. we know they are all committed to doing whatever it takes & the race to the bottom in the QE infinity game is here to stay for much longer than most people can envisage. What we can look for is hints & planting of the seeds of next potential steps... yield curve inversion, buying equities, bailing out more airlines (through the Treasury), negative rates, etc.  



Start with gratitude & integrity. Make your luck out there. Positioning > Idea. Process > Outcome. 



Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article
  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article


The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (
- Full disclaimer (

40 Bank Street, 26th floor
E14 5DA
United Kingdom

Contact Saxo

Select region

United Kingdom
United Kingdom

Trade Responsibly
All trading carries risk. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more
Additional Key Information Documents are available in our trading platform.

Saxo is a registered Trading Name of Saxo Capital Markets UK Ltd (‘Saxo’). Saxo is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, Firm Reference Number 551422. Registered address: 26th Floor, 40 Bank Street, Canary Wharf, London E14 5DA. Company number 7413871. Registered in England & Wales.

This website, including the information and materials contained in it, are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in the United States, Belgium or any other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation.

It is important that you understand that with investments, your capital is at risk. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. It is your responsibility to ensure that you make an informed decision about whether or not to invest with us. If you are still unsure if investing is right for you, please seek independent advice. Saxo assumes no liability for any loss sustained from trading in accordance with a recommendation.

Apple, iPad and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc.

©   since 1992